- Glassnode reports that Bitcoin investors who bought during last year’s rally are selling more coins per day than at any other point this year, with two holder cohorts now underwater.
- Buyers from one to two years ago hold an average cost basis near $97,000, while those from six to twelve months ago sit near $89,000 — both below Bitcoin’s current price around $84,673.
- Analyst Ted Pillows says a weekly close above $87,500 is required for a strong rally, with Bitcoin risking a drop below $80,000 without one.
Bitcoin struggled to break past $85,000 on Saturday as Glassnode flagged that buyers from last year’s rally were selling more coins per day than at any other point this year, according to the firm’s post on X. The analytics firm grouped holders by purchase timeframe, showing that buyers from one to two years ago hold an average cost basis near $97,000, while those from six to twelve months ago sit near $89,000, leaving both cohorts holding at a loss.
Bitcoin traded around $84,673 at the time of writing, meaning the six-to-twelve-month group needs roughly 5% to reach break-even, while the one-to-two-year group needs nearly 15%. However, not every cohort was selling — Glassnode said holders who bought during the decline were not moving their coins, concentrating supply in one group rather than across the holder base.
Analyst Ted Pillows said on X that Bitcoin “tapped the $87,000 zone” and reversed its entire gain, adding that a strong rally required a weekly close above $87,500. Without that close, Pillows warned of a likely correction below $80,000, a level that sits below both cost-basis figures cited by Glassnode.
Meanwhile, Glassnode had previously reported that Bitcoin’s relative strength was returning, with its win rate against the S&P 500 rising above 50% last week. The recovery came with stocks flat, pointing to a bid for Bitcoin itself.
Analyst Willy Woo made a longer-dated case saying Bitcoin has never been beaten by stocks over a four-year investment period, even for a buyer who entered at a top. He put Bitcoin’s four-year compound annual growth rate at 42% against 19% for the S&P 500.
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