Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply Hits Cyclical Low as Prices Rebound

Long-term Bitcoin Holders' Supply Hits Cyclical Low as Market Shifts to Steady Distribution Amid Price Recovery

  • Long-term Bitcoin holders’ supply reached its lowest point on November 21, coinciding with the price dip near $80,000.
  • Bitcoin’s current price of around $90,000 reflects a 15% increase from the recent low, indicating reduced sell pressure from spot-driven market activity.
  • Long-term holders, defined as those holding bitcoin for at least 155 days, have steadily decreased their holdings since July 2024.
  • The typical cycle of sharp declines in long-term holder supply seen in past market peaks has been replaced by a more measured distribution pattern this cycle.

On November 21, the supply of bitcoin held by long-term holders (LTH), defined as entities holding coins for at least 155 days, dropped to a cyclical low. This decline happened as Bitcoin’s price bottomed near $80,000. Since then, the price has risen roughly 15% to around $90,000. This price movement suggests that most of the selling driven by spot market activity has already passed, following a 36% drop from peak to trough.

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Since mid-2024, long-term holders have been reducing their bitcoin holdings, from approximately 14.77 million BTC in July to about 14.33 million BTC by November. Previous declines in LTH supply were seen in April 2024 and March 2025. The April dip followed bitcoin reaching an all-time high near $73,000, indicating selling by long-term holders into rising prices. The March low coincided with a market correction triggered by tariff concerns, with bitcoin bottoming near $76,000 in April.

Historically, large drops in long-term holder supply occurred during retail-driven market manias at cycle peaks in 2017 and 2021, involving sharp and aggressive selling. However, the current cycle shows a different pattern with slower, steadier shifts in long-term holder supply. This shift points to changes in market structure and holder behavior, suggesting evolution beyond traditional four-year Bitcoin Price cycles.

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