- Bitcoin’s “short-term holder stress” metric has reached its lowest level since the 2018 bear market bottom.
- This on-chain signal historically aligns with major market bottoms, preceding rallies as high as 1,900%.
- Major institutional analysis, including from Wells Fargo, points to a potential influx of liquidity that could support a Bitcoin rebound.
A crucial on-chain indicator suggests Bitcoin may have reached a significant market bottom in early 2026. The Short-Term Holder stress oscillator has plunged to its most oversold level since late 2018, according to new data from Checkonchain, signaling extreme capitulation among recent buyers.
This metric tracks the gap between Bitcoin’s spot price and the average cost basis for coins held under 155 days. Consequently, its current extreme reading indicates Bitcoin is trading far below what newer investors paid, a condition that has historically preceded massive rallies.
A similar signal in late 2018 preceded an approximate 1,900% price increase over three years. Meanwhile, the same indicator also flashed before the November 2022 bottom, which launched a 700% rally to an all-time high near $126,000.
Parallel analysis from institutional firms strengthens this bottoming thesis. Wells Fargo strategist Ohsung Kwon suggested larger-than-usual U.S. tax refunds could funnel billions into markets, reviving risk appetite.
Reported by CNBC, this potential liquidity injection may absorb remaining sell pressure by the end of March. Therefore, the convergence of extreme on-chain data and macroeconomic factors hints at a potential turning point for Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
✅ Follow BITNEWSBOT on Telegram, Facebook, LinkedIn, X.com, and Google News for instant updates.
