- Bitcoin’s 52-week correlation with Gold has hit zero for the first time since mid-2022 and could turn negative by the end of January.
- Historical instances show an average BTC rally of about 56% within two months after correlation with gold turned negative.
- One past exception occurred in May 2021 when regulatory and corporate actions forced a market downturn.
- Rising global liquidity and the end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening are cited as bullish macro tailwinds.
- Analysts and fractals suggest a potential $144,000–$150,000 range if the 56% advance materializes.
Bitcoin’s 52-week correlation with gold recently fell to zero for the first time since mid-2022 and market observers say it may turn negative by the end of January. Analysts link this shift to liquidity trends and cycle patterns that historically preceded strong Bitcoin rallies.
In four comparable past cases, Bitcoin rallied by an average of 56% within roughly two months after its correlation with gold turned negative. The pattern failed in May 2021, when Bitcoin fell about 26% amid Tesla suspending Bitcoin payments and intensified Chinese crackdowns on mining and trading, which triggered forced deleveraging across the market.
Observers point to macro tailwinds supporting a bullish outlook now, including rising global M2 liquidity and the end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening. In their latest report, Matt Hougan of Bitwise Asset Management said “As a new monetary easing cycle has begun globally and with the Fed’s QT program ending, it is likely that we will see this growth rate continue to the upside throughout 2026, a positive catalyst for Bitcoin’s price.”
The report noted that under similar macro conditions, gold rose about 65% in 2025 while Bitcoin’s returns were nearly flat, and it suggested “Although gold and Bitcoin occasionally move in tandem, their long-term correlation is only mildly positive, which we somewhat counterintuitively find attractive.” Analyst Tuur Demeester also said that “accelerated money printing remains a major tailwind for Bitcoin” in 2026.
A long-term fractal shared by analyst Midas shared compares the 2024–2026 structure to the 2020–2021 cycle, showing a downtrend, multi-month accumulation, and a pre-bull breakout. A 56% gain from current levels would place Bitcoin in the roughly $144,000–$150,000 range, a target cited if the fractal continues to play out.
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