- Bitcoin faces continued macroeconomic pressure despite bouncing from local bottom near $75,000, with analysts divided on whether a trend reversal is imminent.
- Early signs of demand recovery are visible but remain below levels seen during previous bull markets, with continued ETF outflows totaling over $870 million since April 3.
- Bitcoin must break through significant resistance at $86,300-$86,500 to confirm a bullish reversal, while liquidity remains at multi-year lows.
Bitcoin remains under pressure as macroeconomic concerns continue to impact its performance. After rebounding from around $75,000 on April 7-9, market participants are debating whether the cryptocurrency might be preparing to reverse its downward trajectory that has persisted since early 2024.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt dismissed optimism about trendline breaks, stating: "Of all chart construction, trendlines are the LEAST significant. A trendline violation does NOT signify a transition of the BTC trend. Sorry." However, analyst Kevin Svenson noted a possible weekly RSI breakout, which he considers "among the most reliable macro breakout indicators."
Signs of Demand Recovery Emerging, But Remain Weak
According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s apparent demand shows early recovery signs after a sustained negative period. However, this pattern mirrors what happened before the 2021 cycle peak, where demand remained low for months before true structural recovery.
Trading volumes have significantly decreased compared to previous bull markets. CryptoQuant data shows daily spot volumes around 30,000 BTC and derivatives at 400,000 BTC – respectively 6x and 3x lower than the June-July 2021 period preceding the last bull run. Institutional interest reflects this weak demand, with spot BTC ETFs recording continuous outflows exceeding $870 million since April 3.
Liquidity Constraints and Critical Price Levels
On the supply side, Glassnode’s recent report indicates realized cap growth has slowed to 0.80% monthly, "well below typical bull market thresholds." Exchange balances have dropped to 2.6 million BTC, the lowest since November 2018.
Some analysts see potential positive signals. Market analyst Michael van de Poppe highlighted the rising M2 money supply, which has historically influenced Bitcoin prices with a 12-week lag. He noted: "If the correlation remains, then I assume that we’ll see Bitcoin rally to an ATH in this quarter."
For a confirmed reversal, Bitcoin needs to break through the resistance zone between $86,300 and $86,500, as shown on CoinGlass’ liquidity heatmap. Alphractal confirms this threshold, adding that support levels exist at $73,900 and $64,700 if prices weaken.
Industry observers caution that despite Bitcoin’s resilience above $80,000, thin liquidity and ongoing macroeconomic challenges suggest that declaring a trend reversal may be premature. Any meaningful breakout would need to be supported by increased spot market volume rather than leverage-driven activity.
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