- Bitcoin is expected to remain in a tight price range through the end of December, with limited likelihood of a traditional Santa Rally.
- Analysts highlight low trading volume, weak momentum, and shifts in market cycles as factors restraining upward movement.
- Oversold technical signals do not guarantee a market bottom, with historical patterns showing potential for further declines.
- Increasing global debt and changing macro conditions are influencing the long-term behavior of the cryptocurrency market.
- Over the past decade, late-December rallies have typically produced only modest average returns for Bitcoin holders.
Bitcoin is expected to trade within a limited range through late December, reducing expectations for a usual Santa Rally in the cryptocurrency markets. Analysts monitoring momentum, macroeconomic conditions, and long-term signals cite multiple factors, including low trading volumes and broken market cycles, that are holding back significant price advances.
Recently, the price of Bitcoin gained about 1% during early Thursday trading, reaching roughly $87,200 ahead of the latest U.S. inflation data release. Retail sentiment remains deeply negative, with social chatter around the cryptocurrency staying low.
According to Wyckoff Analytics, momentum is weakening across both Bitcoin and the broader crypto sector, with recent rallies happening on reduced trading volume—a situation that often signals a pending retest of support levels. The analyst known as Dr. Cat suggested Bitcoin may remain in a sideways pattern into early 2026 to resolve current trends. He identified $85,000 as a short-term pivot point, with stronger supports at $80,000 and secondary support at $77,000. He stated, “That’s why for the next 2.5 weeks it will be very hard to start a rally above 89K.” Dr. Cat added that a price rebound to the $98,000–$103,000 range in January would more likely signal a market top, not the start of a new uptrend.
Crypto analyst Lark Davis observed that Bitcoin’s weekly relative strength index (RSI)—a tool to measure how overbought or oversold an asset is—has dropped to levels seen during previous bear markets and major downturns. He cautioned that “these bottoms can take way longer to form than you think,” and emphasized that oversold technical readings have previously preceded further steep declines.
Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, explained that the traditional four-year market cycle for Bitcoin no longer applies, largely due to global debt dynamics. He pointed to rising interest expenses outpacing GDP growth as a central influence on long-term crypto market trends.
Seasonal tailwinds have frequently led to late-December rallies in the past. Data shows that cryptocurrencies enjoyed a post-Christmas week rally eight times in the last ten years, with average returns ranging from 0.69% to 11.87%. However, between 2014 and 2023, Bitcoin’s average gains during these rally periods have been only 1.32% before Christmas and 1.29% after—much lower than the typical full-December average gain of 9.48%. This December, Bitcoin is currently down over 3%.
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