- Bitcoin bulls briefly revisited $87,000, but the 2026 yearly open at $87,570 continues to provide resistance.
- Traders are focusing on the bond market ahead of Wednesday’s 10-year note auction and Fed meeting minutes.
- October historically averages an 18.7% upside for Bitcoin since 2013, with the month-to-date already up 2.7%.
Bitcoin (BTC) is eyeing a key resistance level as the asset stands on the cusp of turning its 2026 yearly candle green, with bulls briefly revisiting $87,000 on some exchanges after sealing the highest weekly close since late January at $86,532 on Bitstamp. Data from TradingView shows brief wicks to $87,000 following the weekly close, marking Bitcoin’s fourth attempt to break higher since Sept. 21.
However, bulls have so far failed to reclaim the yearly open at $87,570, which acts as ongoing resistance. On lower time frames, liquidity hunts continue to dictate price action, with liquidations of nearby short positions around $85,500 and walls of bids and asks thickening around spot price, keeping volatility constricted.
Meanwhile, CoinGlass data shows concentrations at $83,700 in addition to the yearly open. Trader and analyst Rekt Capital wrote in his latest X analysis that Bitcoin remains sandwiched between key support at $82,500 and resistance at $86,700, with a decisive move above $86,700 opening the path to a higher range with $93,700 as its ceiling.
Consequently, a comparatively light week of macro data in the US puts bond markets at the forefront after both the 10-year and 30-year bond yields hit 5.34% and 5.69% respectively—levels not seen since 2002. The 10-year yield stood at 5.25% at the time of writing Monday, and trading resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized that the bond market is in the spotlight this week.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will publish the minutes of the September FOMC meeting, where officials voted to increase interest rates by 0.25%. Since then, market expectations of further policy tightening have whipsawed, with data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showing odds of another 0.25% hike at the October FOMC meeting dropping from 70% a week ago to current levels of just 18%.
Seasonality also remains a focus among Bitcoin market participants as October has commenced with BTC price upside. Onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant reports that Bitcoin has already weathered a traditionally difficult period at the start of the month, with contributor Andrew Kamsky noting that the first three days of October historically average a 0.66% decline, but 2026 held up better with a 1.4% gain.
CoinGlass data shows that on average since 2013, Bitcoin has ended October 18.7% higher, giving a 2026 target of just under $100,000, with only three “red” October months in the past 13 years.
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