- Bitcoin rallied up to 3% on Sunday but remains far below its recent highs, with the price around $71,000 after hitting 15-month lows.
- Key market analysis warns that BTC may still face new macro lows if the 2022 bear market pattern repeats, focusing on the 50-week EMA and 200-week MA cloud.
- Analysts note that the US spot Bitcoin ETFs’ average cost basis is approximately $82,000, with a true bottom potentially forming below $50,000 where many ETF buyers would be underwater.
Bitcoin gained up to 3% this Sunday, briefly pushing the BTC/USD pair above $71,000, but many traders remained unconvinced the brutal price crash was truly over.
Consequently, data from TradingView showed the cryptocurrency was now up 20% from the 15-month lows recorded just days prior, though significant volatility persisted as the weekly close approached.
Independent analyst Filbfilb highlighted a chart comparing current price action to the 2022 bear market, pointing to the daunting 50-week exponential moving average as a major resistance level at $95,300.
Similarly, analyst Tony Severino presented multiple indicators suggesting new lows were highly probable, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.
“$BTC final capitulation hasn’t happened yet,” trader BitBull agreed, referencing the 2022 cycle and suggesting a real bottom would form below $50,000.
This projection is notable given that US spot Bitcoin ETF data from Checkonchain shows the average purchase price for these funds is approximately $82,000.
Meanwhile, analysis of key long-term trend lines added to the cautious outlook. Caleb Franzen of Cubic Analytics noted that Bitcoin is currently retesting its 200-week moving average “cloud,” a zone between $58,000 and $68,000, in a manner that eerily mirrors May 2022.
However, Franzen acknowledged that a carbon copy of the 2022 bear market is not a certainty, and the future remains unpredictable.
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