- Economist Timothy Peterson predicts a 75% likelihood of Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs within nine months, citing the asset’s position near its historical lower bound.
- April and October have historically been Bitcoin’s strongest performing months, with average gains of 12.98% and 21.98% respectively over the past decade.
- On-chain analysis reveals critical cost basis zones between $84,000-$85,000 for active addresses and $91,000 for short-term whales, representing potential psychological shift points for investors.
Bitcoin stands a strong 75% chance of reaching new all-time highs within the next nine months, according to network economist Timothy Peterson. In his recent market assessment, Peterson identified Bitcoin’s current position near its historical lower bound as a positive indicator for potential upward momentum, suggesting the cryptocurrency is primed for significant appreciation.
On March 25, Peterson highlighted via X that Bitcoin’s current trajectory places it at the bottom 25% threshold of its historical range, a position that statistically favors a bullish outcome. He further emphasized the short-term potential, stating, “Here is a 50% chance it will gain 50%+ in the short term.”
This optimistic outlook builds on Peterson’s previous research showing pronounced seasonality in Bitcoin’s performance. Historical data indicates April and October have consistently delivered the strongest returns over the past decade, averaging gains of 12.98% and 21.98% respectively.
On-chain metrics provide additional context for current market positioning. In a CryptoQuant analysis, researcher Crazzyblockk said that short-term whale investors maintain a realized price of approximately $91,000. Meanwhile, most highly active addresses show a cost basis between $84,000 and $85,000.
These price levels represent critical psychological thresholds that could influence market dynamics. As Crazzyblockk explained, “These onchain cost basis levels represent decision zones where market psychology shifts. Traders and investors should closely monitor price reactions in these areas to gauge trend strength and potential reversals.”
The $84,000 to $85,000 zone particularly warrants attention as it represents a potential liquidity zone where selling pressure might emerge if prices dip below investors’ entry points.
This analysis comes amid other positive signals for Bitcoin, including a recent Hash Ribbon buy signal—the first in eight months—and BlackRock‘s launch of a Bitcoin ETP in Europe.
Every investment carries risk, and investors should conduct thorough research before making financial decisions.
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