- Bitcoin may be entering the latter stages of the bear market as downside momentum slows, according to Real Vision’s Jamie Coutts
- Coutts identifies early signs of bullish divergence on longer time frames, though trend indicators remain bearish
- The analyst is skeptical of Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2030, projecting $200,000 to $250,000 in the next two to three years
- Coutts warns the Bitcoin community must address quantum computing threats by 2027 to avoid network risks
Real Vision chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts suggested during a recent interview that Bitcoin could be entering the latter stages of the bear market, with downside momentum beginning to slow. Coutts described Bitcoin’s current price action as a “typical garden-variety bear market” with BTC trading around the $63,000 mark, roughly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,100.
He noted that Bitcoin’s volatility has declined by about 50% compared with the previous market cycle, suggesting the current downturn may be less severe. However, Coutts warned that markets rarely follow historical patterns so neatly, noting that “at the moment, all the trend indicators are obviously bearish.”
On the bright side, Coutts said he is beginning to see early technical signs that selling pressure is easing. “I’m starting to see a bullish divergence appear on the longer time frames on momentum,” Coutts said, though he clarified that this doesn’t mean the bear market is over.
While many market participants blamed Bitcoin’s fourth-quarter downturn on tightening global liquidity conditions, Coutts said that weakening onchain fundamentals also played a significant part. “So onchain demand, which definitely drives price and is somewhat correlated to things like global liquidity and the business cycle, they started to deteriorate as well,” he added.
When asked about forecasts from Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030, Coutts was cautious. He said he is “more comfortable with a forecast in the next sort of two to three years that Bitcoin should get to sort of $200,000 to 250,000,” adding that outside that timeframe it is “very hard to say.”
On longer-term risks, Coutts said the community will need to take more decisive action by 2027 to address the potential threat posed by quantum computing. He warned that Bitcoin developers who dismiss concerns over quantum computing’s potential threat to the network are on the “wrong side of this.” Bitcoin is up 4.45% over the past 30 days, according to data.
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