- Macroeconomist Lyn Alden expects Bitcoin to surpass its current $85,000 price by the end of 2025 despite Trump’s tariff announcement impact.
- Bitcoin’s 24/7 trading capability contributes to increased volatility during traditional market uncertainty.
- Bitcoin could potentially disconnect from Nasdaq performance, especially in scenarios similar to the 2003-2007 pre-financial crisis period.
Macroeconomist Lyn Alden predicts Bitcoin will finish 2025 above its current $85,000 value, though she believes the price would have been higher without US President Donald Trump‘s February tariff announcement. Speaking on the April 17 episode of Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell, Alden told viewers, "My guess is that we end up higher at the end of the year than we are now, at least."
Alden suggested that a "massive liquidity unlock" could trigger Bitcoin to reach more optimistic targets that existed before the tariffs were introduced. Such a scenario could emerge if the US bond market experienced significant problems requiring Federal Reserve intervention through yield curve control or extensive quantitative easing measures.
Bitcoin’s Round-the-Clock Trading Intensifies Market Reactions
While Alden believes Bitcoin has a "good chance" of exceeding $100,000 before year’s end, she highlighted challenges posed by its continuous trading schedule. Unlike traditional stock markets that operate during specific hours, Bitcoin trades 24/7, creating unique volatility patterns.
"Because it trades 24/7, if people are worried about how things are going to open on Monday, some pools of capital can sell their Bitcoin on a Sunday and prepare," Alden explained. This continuous trading capability contributes to Bitcoin’s price volatility, particularly during periods when traditional markets are experiencing significant stress.
At publication time, Bitcoin was trading at $84,950, according to CoinMarketCap data, showing a 0.95% decline over the past 30 days.
Potential Divergence from Traditional Market Performance
Alden noted that Bitcoin can "disconnect" from the Nasdaq 100 under certain economic conditions, especially scenarios that negatively impact Nasdaq profit margins without affecting global liquidity. She pointed to the 2003-2007 period preceding the global financial crisis as a potential model for Bitcoin’s future performance.
"If we encounter a five-year period like that again, that could be a period where Bitcoin does pretty well, even as the US stock market doesn’t do particularly well," Alden stated.
In her September research report, Alden demonstrated that Bitcoin moves in alignment with global M2 money supply 83% of the time over 12-month periods. The research, titled "Bitcoin a Global Liquidity Barometer," compared Bitcoin to other major asset classes including the S&P 500, Gold, and Vanguard Total World Stock ETF, concluding that Bitcoin showed the strongest correlation to global liquidity.
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