- Roughly $15.6 billion in Bitcoin options expire on Deribit Friday, with 106,200 calls versus 75,900 puts signaling bullish sentiment.
- Max pain sits at $76,000, while the busiest strike is $70,000, where both the largest call and put positions are concentrated.
- Post-expiry tests include U.S. durable goods data, consumer sentiment numbers, and CME futures settlement — all within hours of the contracts settling.
Nearly $15.6 billion in Bitcoin options expire on Deribit early Friday, with 182,000 BTC in open contracts split between 106,200 calls and 75,900 puts, data shows. The put-to-call ratio of 0.71 signals traders betting on further price gains, aligning with “greed” sentiment measured by the Crypto Fear and Greed Index.
That $15.6 billion is a notional figure — the value of Bitcoin the contracts represent, not cash changing hands. Options traders watch max pain, the price where the most contracts expire worthless, which Deribit places at $76,000, roughly $9,000 below Bitcoin’s current price near $85,000.
Firms that sold these options hedge by buying or selling real Bitcoin as prices move, fueling rallies while contracts remain active. The busiest strike by far is $70,000, where 8,705 BTC in calls and 7,653 BTC in puts create hedging pressure from both directions.
Once contracts settle, U.S. durable goods orders and the University of Michigan’s final September sentiment reading land within hours. The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% on Sept. 16, giving those releases extra weight for rate-sensitive assets like Bitcoin.
September has historically tested Bitcoin’s momentum, with the token closing lower in eight of the past 13 years. So far, bulls appear positioned to break that pattern, with Deribit settling at 8:00 UTC and CME futures closing the day’s tests seven hours later.
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