Torres proposes ban on officials trading prediction markets.

Torres plans bill to bar officials from trading prediction markets on nonpublic government information after a suspicious Polymarket payout tied to Nicolás Maduro's reported capture

  • Ritchie Torres plans legislation to bar officials from trading on prediction markets when they hold nonpublic government information.
  • The proposed Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 would extend insider-trading rules to contracts tied to government policy and political outcomes.
  • A roughly $32,000 wager on Polymarket predicting Nicolás Maduro’s removal paid out more than $400,000 after his reported capture, prompting scrutiny.
  • Questions arose because the winning account had little prior activity, suggesting possible misuse of privileged information or account compromise.
  • Kalshi said its rules bar insiders from trading on material nonpublic information, and Polymarket reported fixing a security flaw tied to a third-party authentication provider.

Ritchie Torres is preparing the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 after scrutiny over a large prediction-market payout linked to the sudden reported capture of Nicolás Maduro. The move follows a post this week by Jake Sherman that outlined the bill’s scope and purpose; see Sherman’s post. The legislation aims to prevent officials from profiting on contracts when they hold nonpublic information through their duties.

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The bill would bar federal elected officials, political appointees and executive branch employees from trading prediction-market contracts tied to government policy, government action or political outcomes when they possess nonpublic information. It mirrors insider trading rules in traditional financial markets. “The restriction applies to buying, selling, or exchanging prediction market contracts tied to government policy, government action, or political outcomes on platforms engaged in interstate commerce,” the post stated.

Days earlier, a newly created account on Polymarket placed roughly $32,000 on a contract predicting Maduro’s removal by Jan. 31, 2026. Hours later, U.S. forces reportedly captured the leader, sending the contract to settlement and netting the trader more than $400,000 in profit; see a related social post that highlighted the outcome.

The winning account showed little prior activity, which raised questions about whether someone used privileged information or exploited a compromised account. In related comments, Kalshi’s press relations account said the platform’s rules prohibit insiders or decision-makers from trading on material nonpublic information. Polymarket said it identified and fixed a security issue caused by a vulnerability in a third-party authentication provider and that affected users will be contacted.

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