S&P 500 Hits Bitcoin-Level Volatility Following Trump’s Tariff Plans

S&P 500 Briefly Matches Bitcoin's Volatility Following Trump's Tariff Announcements

  • The S&P 500 briefly matched Bitcoin‘s volatility levels following Trump’s April tariff announcements, reaching 74 compared to Bitcoin’s 71.
  • Stock markets experienced crisis-level turbulence due to the trade war threats, with US Treasury yields seeing their steepest rise since 2001.
  • Bitcoin ETFs face continued outflows despite a stock market relief rally, indicating cautious institutional confidence in cryptocurrency markets.

The S&P 500 Index temporarily experienced volatility matching cryptocurrency levels in early April, following U.S. President Donald Trump‘s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement on April 2. This unusual market behavior revealed the significant anxiety infiltrating traditional financial markets as trade war concerns escalated.

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Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas highlighted this rare occurrence on social media platform X, where he showed the S&P 500’s volatility reaching 74, actually exceeding Bitcoin’s volatility reading of 71 during the same period. This represents a dramatic departure from the S&P 500’s typical long-term volatility average, which normally remains below 20.

This convergence is particularly notable because Bitcoin has historically maintained much higher volatility levels than traditional assets. According to BlackRock, “Bitcoin’s volatility remains elevated at 3.9 and 4.6 times that of Gold and global equities, respectively,” though the cryptocurrency’s average volatility has declined over time.

Market Turbulence Spreads Across Asset Classes

The extreme stock market volatility stemmed from Trump’s proposed tariffs, which threatened duties between 10% and 50% on imports from America’s major trading partners. While some tariffs have since been paused for 90 days, the administration has increased duties on Chinese imports to at least 145%.

The market turbulence expanded beyond equities, with U.S. Treasury bonds experiencing a substantial sell-off. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is tracking toward its most significant increase since 2001, further indicating widespread market stress.

U.S. equity markets staged a remarkable relief rally on April 9 following Trump’s tariff pause announcement. However, Bitfinex analysts noted to Cointelegraph that this “macro relief” didn’t meaningfully extend to Bitcoin or its spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), suggesting “institutional confidence remains cautious in the near term.”

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Bitcoin’s Long-Term Outlook

After January’s record inflows, ETF demand has cooled considerably, with Farside data showing six consecutive days of outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Bitfinex analysts attributed this to “hesitation among large allocators who may be waiting for more favorable entry points or clearer regulatory guidance.”

Despite Bitcoin’s current underperformance, Bitfinex expressed optimism for the period from Q2 through the end of 2025, citing potential bullish catalysts including sovereign accumulation and growth in real-world asset tokenization.

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Unchained’s director of market research, Joe Burnett, suggested that Bitcoin offers attractive characteristics for long-term investors concerned about government policy and fiat currency risks. While the S&P 500’s volatility spike will likely prove temporary, Burnett noted that recent market behavior “challenges the long-held belief that traditional markets are safer, less risky, or more stable.”

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