Salesforce Slumps 10% YTD as AI Fears Shadow Recovery vs MSFT

Salesforce down ~10% YTD amid AI-disruption fears and leadership transition, despite raised fiscal guidance and bullish analyst targets

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  • Salesforce shares are down about 10% year-to-date in early 2026, making it the weakest performer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average so far this year.
  • Investors cite AI-driven disruption fears and an ongoing leadership and project transition as drivers of the stock’s weak start.
  • In 2025, Salesforce fell 24% while rival Microsoft rose 14%, adding context to current investor concern.
  • The company rolled out new AI initiatives and in December raised its fiscal 2026 revenue and adjusted profit forecasts.
  • Analysts remain largely bullish: Evercore ISI Group set a $340 target and Truist Securities set a $380 target, while JPMorgan warned of a complicated transition period.

At the start of 2026, shares of Salesforce fell about 10% year-to-date, prompting investor concern and making it the worst-performing member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average so far this year. Traders and shareholders point to worries that Artificial Intelligence could disrupt demand for traditional CRM software and to the company’s leadership and project transitions.

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The stock’s weakness follows a difficult 2025, when Salesforce dropped 24% while longtime rival Microsoft gained 14%. The continued decline into 2026 has heightened scrutiny of the company’s strategy and near-term outlook.

In December, Salesforce raised its fiscal 2026 revenue and adjusted profit forecasts, signaling management’s attempt to steady expectations. The company also launched new AI initiatives aimed at adapting products to emerging market trends.

Analysts have reacted with mixed short-term caution but longer-term optimism, saying earnings should improve as the company adjusts to AI-driven changes despite current sales slumps and enterprise spending pressures. Several firms maintained bullish price targets, with Evercore ISI Group at $340 and Truist Securities at $380.

JPMorgan analyst Mark Murphy cautioned about timing, noting the company’s transition phase and internal stabilization. “We continue to emphasize that Salesforce is in a complicated 12-18 month period of transition for which internals seem to be stabilizing/improving, and yet may not translate into tangible/linear improvements across all the metrics investors are trained to focus on (revenue, cRPO, etc.),” he wrote.

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