- Traders on the binary options site Polymarket briefly pushed odds from 3% to 45% that Michael Saylor‘s company Strategy would sell Bitcoin by January 1, 2026.
- A false rumor based on misinterpreted blockchain data caused Strategy shares (MSTR) to drop sharply in pre-market trading before recovering.
- Michael Saylor clarified that no bitcoin sales had occurred, explaining transfers to exchanges were not sales.
- Strategy stock has declined 29% this year, underperforming bitcoin, and its market value is now below the value of its bitcoin holdings.
- Binary options markets like Polymarket have small transaction volumes and can be easily influenced, with current trade volume around $1 million for this event.
Michael Saylor‘s firm Strategy did not sell any bitcoin despite a rumor that led to traders on the binary options platform Polymarket multiplying their money by 10x overnight. The speculation about a bitcoin sale caused odds on the platform to spike from 3% to a peak of 45% during Nasdaq’s pre-market session.
The rumor, based on a screenshot from blockchain analytics site Arkham Intelligence, mistakenly flagged transfers of bitcoin in red, which many interpreted as negative and indicating sales. This led to a sharp fall in Strategy shares (MSTR) to a pre-market low near $193 per share before bouncing back above $200 at the market open.
In response, Michael Saylor posted on Twitter clarifying that no bitcoin had been sold. He explained that the transfers detected were simply movements of bitcoin to an exchange, not sales at the exchange itself.
The cryptocurrency sector has faced significant losses recently, shedding around $1 trillion in market value over five weeks. Year-to-date, bitcoin has remained flat, roughly returning its price to $27,000 after previously reaching $35,000. Meanwhile, Strategy underperformed bitcoin, falling 29% this year, with its market value dropping below the worth of its bitcoin holdings. Its stock has lagged behind bitcoin for over two years.
Calls for Saylor to publish the company’s wallets or offer proof of reserves have gone unanswered, citing security worries. He recently shared an AI image of a life raft with the message “HODL”, urging holders to keep their positions.
Following his clarification, Polymarket odds for bitcoin sales by Strategy returned to around 4%, their initial level. As a reminder, binary options markets like Polymarket are often lightly traded and vulnerable to manipulation. The total transaction volume on this bitcoin-sale event was approximately $1 million.
For more on Strategy‘s performance and market activity, see the related coverage at Protos.
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