- Betting odds on crypto platform Polymarket show 37% chance of India invading Pakistan by June following recent tensions.
- Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif stated a military incursion from India is “imminent,” prompting Pakistan to reinforce its forces.
- Tensions escalated after an attack on tourists in Kashmir, with India detaining 1,500 people while Pakistan denies involvement and seeks neutral investigation.
Tensions between India and Pakistan reached alarming levels as betting odds on crypto platform Polymarket surged to 41% today, reflecting growing concerns of possible military conflict. Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif declared that military action from India was “imminent,” according to a report by Reuters. The betting odds currently stand around 37%.
“We have reinforced our forces because it is something which is imminent now,” Asif stated, prompting the spike in betting predictions on Polymarket. The platform specifies that the bet will be resolved if “India commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Pakistan” before June 30, 2025.
Kashmir Attack Escalates Regional Tensions
The current crisis stems from a violent incident in Indian-administered Kashmir, where a gunman shot 26 tourists last week. India has claimed the attack was carried out by Pakistan-supported militants, though it hasn’t identified any specific group. In response, Indian authorities have demolished homes of alleged militants and detained approximately 1,500 people in the region.
Pakistan has denied any involvement in the attack and, alongside China, has called for a “neutral investigation” into the incident. Polymarket indicates its resolution of the bet will be based on “official confirmation” from either country, the United Nations, or permanent UN Security Council members.
Pakistan’s Cryptocurrency Developments Amid Crisis
Separate from the mounting tensions, Pakistan has recently been at the center of significant cryptocurrency developments. Donald Trump‘s World Liberty Financial signed a “memorandum of understanding” with Pakistan’s national crypto council today. Additionally, former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao took on an advisory role with the Pakistan Crypto Council earlier this month.
The betting market on Polymarket reflects the opinions of participants placing wagers on whether UMA token holders would confirm an Indian invasion of Pakistan before July. This percentage should not be interpreted as a scientific prediction but rather as an indication of market sentiment among crypto gamblers regarding the possibility of military conflict between the nuclear-armed neighbors.
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