- Altimeter Capital partner Freda Duan says NVIDIA now offers a full end-to-end autonomous driving stack, a first for the company.
- Duan called Nvidia’s move a potential “Android moment” and linked to the company’s latest push on X.
- She said production-grade performance must be proven on real roads; Mercedes‑Benz CLA deployments in 2026 are the first meaningful test.
- Duan estimated Tesla spent $3–4 billion on self-driving training in fiscal 2024 and said roughly $5 billion per year may be needed to maintain an edge.
- Retail sentiment shows bearishness on Tesla and bullishness on Nvidia, while Nvidia’s stock rose ~30% over the past year versus ~5% for Tesla.
Freda Duan, a partner at Altimeter Capital, said recently that Nvidia is offering a full end-to-end autonomous driving system for the first time, a step she described as potentially reshaping industry adoption. She posted her observations on X, and noted that the market will need on-road tests to judge real-world performance.
Duan said Nvidia has worked in autonomy for years but until now supplied mostly infrastructure rather than the full decision-making “brain.” She flagged uncertainty about whether its models will handle production-grade edge cases when deployed at scale.
At the Consumer Electronics Show, Jensen Huang highlighted new AI hardware including the next-generation Vera Rubin chips and introduced Alpamayo, a suite of autonomous driving models, simulation tools and datasets. Nvidia said it will release Alpamayo and the training data more broadly so automakers can evaluate performance.
Duan compared long-term economics, estimating Tesla spent $3–4 billion on self-driving training in fiscal 2024 and that roughly $5 billion per year may be needed to sustain its lead. She said broader platform access could reduce Tesla’s terminal market share and affect ride‑hailing networks.
On hardware, Duan noted many current vehicles have limited camera setups, though she expects hardware constraints to evolve. She also summarized Tesla’s chip roadmap: vehicles now run the AI4 processor, with AI5 near tape‑out and AI6 in development. Elon Musk has warned the company might need to build a “gigantic” semiconductor fab to meet future demand.
Duan said the decisive evidence will come from on‑road deployments, with the Mercedes‑Benz CLA program expected in 2026 as the first meaningful signal. Retail sentiment on social platforms shows strong bearishness on Tesla and bullishness on Nvidia, and over the past 12 months their stocks moved roughly +5% and +30% respectively.
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