- Indian markets expected to start cautiously amid U.S.-China trade tensions.
- Key resistance levels must be surpassed for the Nifty to sustain its upward trend.
- Technical charts show Nifty is trading between 24,400 and 25,500 for nearly 20 weeks.
- Foreign Institutional Investors have continued buying; RSI signals positive momentum.
- Analysts caution that global policy changes remain a potential risk for bulls.
Indian equity markets are set for a cautious opening as increasing trade frictions between the United States and China impact investor sentiment. Analysts note that Indian indices have shown relative resilience, but ongoing policy changes abroad continue to influence domestic market direction.
On Friday, major global indices declined after U.S. President Donald Trump revealed a 100% hike in tariffs on Chinese imports. Subsequently, President Trump stated via social media that trade relations with China “will all be fine,” attempting to stabilize market expectations. For India, analyst Bharat Sharma highlighted that the GIFT Nifty index reflected only a mild response to these global events.
Sharma explained that the Nifty’s weekly chart shows a descending resistance line now situated in the 25,400–25,500 range. A clear breakout above this level could sustain bullish momentum. If the Nifty faces rejection at this trendline, it may remain range-bound, consolidating between 24,400 and 25,500. He added that a move below 24,400 could trigger more pronounced losses.
For short-term traders, Sharma suggested close monitoring of the opening levels. “If there is a gap-down around 25,130–25,100, waiting for the first two candles is advised before entering positions,” he noted. Resistance for recovery is expected around 25,200–25,250, with 25,000 marked as a critical support to prevent further declines. Key support levels include 25,250, 25,200, and 25,000; resistance lies at 25,330 and upwards to 25,500.
Sunil Kotak pointed out that Foreign Institutional Investors have been net buyers for four straight sessions. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) crossed 60, an indicator of continued positive momentum, and he expects Nifty could soon challenge 25,550. Kotak warned that sudden U.S. tariff or policy shifts remain a core risk for Indian markets.
According to Varun Bhargav, Nifty remains in a distribution phase, favoring a strategy of selling on strength rather than chasing rallies. He stressed the importance of risk management during such uncertain periods.
In the commodities space, analysts recommend buying Gold and silver on dips, citing ongoing strength in physical metals. Additional technical analysis from A&Y Market Research puts Nifty resistance in the 25,317–25,333 zone with support at 25,215–25,246. Bank Nifty resistance is forecast between 56,588–56,632, while support is seen at 56,133–56,205.
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