- Nic Carter has urged immediate action to address Bitcoin’s vulnerability to quantum computing risks, estimating significant threats as soon as 2028.
- The US National Institute of Standards and Technology recommends replacing current cryptography that quantum computers can break by 2030.
- Quantum computing capabilities are advancing rapidly due to substantial private and public investment, increasing the threat timeline.
- About $600 billion worth of Bitcoin is potentially at risk from quantum computing that could decode private keys from exposed public keys.
- A protocol update using post-quantum signature schemes is needed soon, as coding and testing such changes could take two to three years.
Nic Carter, a prominent Bitcoin commentator, has highlighted the increasing risk that quantum computing poses to Bitcoin’s security. He stresses the need for urgent planning to protect Bitcoin from quantum attacks, predicting that quantum computers could break Bitcoin’s cryptography between 2028 and 2033.
Official guidance from the US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) recommends phasing out quantum-vulnerable cryptographic methods such as ECC256 by 2030. Bitcoin also relies on elliptic curve cryptography (ECC), making it susceptible to these risks.
Carter points out that the number of quantum bits (qubits), indicators of quantum computing power, is rapidly growing. Massive investments into quantum research—amounting to billions of dollars in 2025 alone—are accelerating progress, alongside significant government funding in mathematics and cryptography.
He emphasizes that exposed public keys from older Bitcoin wallets, including those believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, represent an immediate financial target worth approximately $600 billion. This creates a strong incentive for potential adversaries to develop quantum attacks. Carter anticipates the ability to break ECC-based cryptography will likely emerge between 2028 and 2033.
Additionally, Carter highlights the synergies between Artificial Intelligence (AI) and quantum computing research, noting that AI funding in the hundreds of billions of dollars is contributing to faster advancements in quantum technology.
Given these timelines, Carter calls for the Bitcoin community to urgently decide how to address these vulnerabilities. He advises that transitioning to post-quantum cryptographic signature schemes through a protocol fork is necessary to secure funds. This process, involving coding, testing, and community consensus, could take two to three years. Carter stresses the importance of starting this work immediately to safeguard Bitcoin’s long-term security.
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