- XRP perpetual funding rates on Binance have been negative recently, signaling a bearish derivatives consensus.
- Similar funding patterns since 2024 preceded sharp rebounds, including roughly 50% moves in August–September 2024 and about 100% in April 2025.
- Analyst Darkfrost warns that accumulated shorts can fuel short squeezes if prices rise.
- Holders must reclaim the $2 area and the 50-week EMA near $2.22 to avoid a deeper pullback toward the 200-week EMA around $1.40.
- Glassnode data show each retest of the $2 zone since early 2025 coincided with roughly $500 million to $1.2 billion in weekly realized losses.
XRP perpetual funding rates on Binance have turned mostly negative in the past two months, mirroring conditions seen before prior sharp rebounds since 2024. The bearish stance emerged after about a 50% drop from XRP’s multiyear high of $3.66 set in July 2025. According to Darkfrost, that setup could leave short sellers vulnerable.
The negative funding indicates more leverage on short positions, which forces those traders to pay to hold shorts. Over time, this builds what the analyst called latent buying pressure. “The accumulation of shorts does create short-term selling pressure, but it also builds latent buying pressure,” and “If the price starts to rise, these positions could be liquidated, fueling the upward move.”
Past episodes of persistent negative funding were followed by strong recoveries in 2024–2025, the analyst noted. XRP briefly bounced near the $1.80–$2.00 support area after testing the lower trendline of a year-long sideways channel. That zone previously launched a 100% rally to $3.66 in April 2025.
Technical risk now centers on the $2 mark. Bulls need to turn $2 and the 50-week EMA near $2.22 into support to prevent a move toward the 200-week EMA around $1.40. On-chain metrics from Glassnode show each retest of the $2 area since early 2025 matched roughly $500 million to $1.2 billion in weekly realized losses, suggesting many holders used those levels to exit positions rather than buy.
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