Markets Fall as Oil Nears $100 on Continued Middle East War

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Most US stocks continued to fall into Thursday’s trading session as the price of oil climbed and the war with Iran marched on. New attacks overnight in the Middle East signaled that the war between the US/Israel, and Iran is far from over. Early Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) led the way down with a loss of around 1.2%, or over 500 points. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) and S&P 500 (^GSPC) each also fell by roughly 0.8%.

One of the sectors heaviest hit by the war and the uncertain US economy has been oil. Oil prices spiked above $100 a barrel Thursday before dipping back under. The spike in the price of crude is one of many everyday things that hit American consumers hard this year. Crude prices continued to climb after Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei — who was appointed on March 9 — said that the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed as a “tool to pressure the enemy.” West Texas Intermediate futures traded 9% higher at around $95 per barrel. Brent crude futures advanced 8% to roughly $100 per barrel.

Additionally, initial jobless claims held steady week-over-week according to the latest jobs report. Labor Department data showed that 213,000 people filed initial jobless claims in the week ended Mar. 7, below economists’ expectations.

Furthermore, the sell-off in US government long-term bonds has also been seen during this tumultuous time in the US economy. Yields like the 10-year (^TNX) and 30-year (^TNY) yields are materially higher. Part of the move reflects rising inflation fears amid surging energy prices. Inflation expectations embedded in the bond market have moved higher, but so have real yields — a sign investors are also demanding more compensation to own long-term debt beyond only expected inflation. The Street increasingly sees higher term premiums, heavy Treasury supply, and hesitant demand as part of the story.

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