- Liquidity is improving following the end of the U.S. government shutdown, with $70 billion already returning to markets and an expected additional $300 billion over the next five to six weeks.
- The U.S. Federal Reserve will end its quantitative tightening program on December 1 and begin quantitative easing, aiming to stimulate economic activity through bond-buying.
- Ark Invest sees these factors potentially reversing recent declines in equities and cryptocurrency markets.
- Despite recent crypto market corrections, ARK Invest maintains its 2030 Bitcoin Price targets, ranging from $300,000 to $1.5 million.
- Bitcoin must surpass the $92,000 level to enable broader market recovery, contingent on favorable macroeconomic conditions.
Following the conclusion of the U.S. federal government shutdown, liquidity has begun returning to financial markets, with approximately $70 billion already re-entering and $300 billion expected over the next five to six weeks. This increase comes as the Treasury General Account normalizes, improving conditions for equities and cryptocurrency sectors.
Further support is anticipated from a policy shift by the U.S. Federal Reserve, scheduled for December 1. The central bank plans to end its quantitative tightening (QT) program, which involved reducing its balance sheet, and transition to quantitative easing (QE). QE consists of bond purchases designed to lower interest rates and encourage economic growth.
ARK Invest highlighted that the combination of returning liquidity and this anticipated monetary policy shift could help reverse recent declines in these markets, according to their X post.
This liquidity improvement is particularly relevant for sectors like cryptocurrency and Artificial Intelligence, which have experienced a “liquidity squeeze” limiting their growth potential. Cathie Wood, CEO and chief investment officer of ARK Invest, noted in a Thursday X post that this squeeze is expected to ease in the coming weeks.
Earlier forecasts from ARK Invest set a 2030 Bitcoin price target between $300,000 in a bear case and $1.5 million in a bull case, as outlined in their valuation models. Despite recent corrections and the impact of stablecoins reducing Bitcoin’s role as a safe-haven asset, Wood affirmed during a recent webinar that the bullish price outlook remains unchanged, stating, “So net, our bull price, which most people focus on, really hasn’t changed.”
Additional crypto analysts have also indicated potential market rallies if financial conditions improve in the U.S. For instance, Bitmex co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted a Bitcoin surge to $250,000 following a Federal Reserve pivot to QE.
However, cryptocurrency markets are expected to remain cautious until Bitcoin exceeds the $92,000 mark, which could pave the way for wider recovery if macroeconomic factors align, according to Iliya Kalchev, dispatch analyst at digital asset firm Nexo, as mentioned to Cointelegraph.
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