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JP Morgan Warns on UK Slowdown as Global De-Dollarization Surges

JP Morgan Warns of UK Economic Slowdown as Global De-Dollarization Accelerates and Gold Prices Surge

  • JP Morgan signals a slowdown in the UK economy as broader global pressures increase.
  • Dollar reserves have dropped below 60% of global holdings, reaching their lowest level since 1994.
  • Bank of England policymaker Alan Taylor warns of a likely “bumpy landing” for the UK economy, with risks of prolonged weakness.
  • JP Morgan expects Gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce by mid-2026 if current de-dollarization trends continue.
  • Trade tensions and central banks’ move away from the U.S. dollar add to the uncertainty in financial markets worldwide.

JP Morgan has warned that the United Kingdom is facing economic challenges amid growing global risks, including a significant decline in the use of the U.S. dollar in global reserves. Recent statements highlight concerns over economic slowdowns and shifting trends among central banks, as financial pressures continue to mount.

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According to the latest analysis from JP Morgan, dollar reserves worldwide have dropped to 57.8%, marking the lowest point since 1994. This figure reflects a gradual decrease from 72% in 2002. The report also notes that dollar-denominated securities held by central banks fell by $59 billion this year. As a result, JP Morgan forecasts a surge in gold demand, with prices possibly reaching $5,000 per ounce by mid-2026.

Bank of England policymaker Alan Taylor described three possible outcomes for the UK economy. He considers a “bumpy landing” scenario most likely, where prolonged economic weakness and inflation undershooting targets could persist. Taylor stated, “By maintaining what I think is a too restrictive path of interest rates, we may have braked too hard, such that inflation cannot smoothly return to target with the economy close to potential.” He added that the risk of a hard landing, which could trigger a recession, is now more significant than before, noting, “The probability of this outcome is now not trivial.”

Taylor also highlighted risks from international trade shifts. He pointed to how increased tariffs in the United States have redirected goods to Europe, which could then impact UK markets as exporters seek new opportunities. These patterns, according to Taylor, could bring additional challenges for the UK economy.

Recent financial market activity reflects investor concern, with demand for precious metals such as gold and silver growing as alternatives to dollar-based assets. Trade disputes, including those involving China and the United States, have contributed to this environment. JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon, in response to these economic signals, warned of hidden financial vulnerabilities after several company collapses.

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Additionally, changes like the UK pension triple-lock adjustment—set to rise by 4.8%—add more fiscal pressures. Both the UK’s economic outlook and the global trend of moving away from the U.S. dollar are reaching critical stages, driving significant changes in markets worldwide.

For more details on Alan Taylor, visit his biography. To read more about JP Morgan’s perspective on the U.S. dollar, see this analysis. For IMF commentary on de-dollarization efforts, refer to the IMF’s request to Zimbabwe.

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