- Matt Hougan expects Bitcoin to produce steady, multi-year gains rather than extreme annual returns.
- Bitcoin fell from a roughly $125,100 peak to about $87,818, down ~30% from the high and down 3.81% over the past 30 days.
- Market participants cite slow institutional buying as a downside buffer, while some warn deeper declines are possible.
- The incoming U.S. administration is unlikely to add significant further upside, according to market observers.
Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, said on Friday that Bitcoin may deliver steady gains over the next decade but is unlikely to see exceptionally large year-on-year jumps. See his remarks on the broadcast here.
Hougan repeated his forecast that 2026 will be a positive year for Bitcoin. He noted a long-term “10-year grind upward of strong returns,” adding “It’s not spectacular returns, [but] strong returns, lower volatility, some up and down.” He also stated “I think next year will be up.”
Sebastian Beau, chief investment officer at ReserveOne, said it remains unclear whether Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle is over. He observed “All-time highs were 125,000, that was in early October, we are bordering on $87,000 today, down 30% relatively quickly, pretty painful.”
Bitcoin traded at $87,818 at the time of publication and was down 3.81% over the prior 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap. Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently predicted Bitcoin could fall to about $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026.
Hougan attributed the year-end pullback partly to the “fast-moving retail crowd,” saying retail traders rotated out ahead of the expected cycle change. He also said that “persistent, slow-moving institutional buying” has limited losses compared with past cycles, which saw declines near 60%.
On policy, Hougan said the new U.S. administration is unlikely to push Bitcoin much higher, commenting “There’s not much more they can marginally do for Bitcoin.” Beau noted that regulators have clarified Bitcoin’s status, saying “We know it is a commodity asset and that has been spelled out by the SEC.”
Definitions: four-year cycle — a recurring historical pattern of Bitcoin Price peaks about every four years; institutional buying — purchases made by large financial firms rather than individual retail traders; commodity asset — an asset treated like a raw material or commodity by regulators.
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