- The US economic outlook is weakening, reflected in a weaker dollar and volatile crypto and stock markets.
- UBS forecasts Gold to reach $4,900 per ounce by 2026, driven by expected Federal Reserve rate cuts and geopolitical tensions.
- Strong inflows into gold ETFs and continued purchases by central banks support rising gold demand.
- Analysts project the gold-to-silver ratio to reach 57, with silver prices potentially hitting $85 to $95.
The current US economic sentiment shows signs of strain, with the dollar weakening and both cryptocurrency and stock markets experiencing volatility. In this environment, gold stands out as a leading asset, expected to achieve significant gains through 2025 and into 2026.
UBS recently projected that gold could rise to a new high of $4,900 per ounce as Federal Reserve rate cut expectations boost momentum. According to a note from UBS, “We expect gold demand to rise further in 2026, influenced by anticipated Fed rate cuts, lower real yields, continued geopolitical uncertainties, and changes in the domestic US policy environment” (source).
The firm highlighted that a deteriorating US fiscal outlook is pressuring the dollar, enhancing gold’s appeal as a safe haven asset. Strong inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) support this trend, with global gold ETFs seeing an unprecedented $17 billion inflow in September and a $26 billion inflow over the preceding quarter, marking a record (source).
Additionally, central banks worldwide continue to increase gold holdings, further boosting demand. UBS analysts referenced the World Gold Council’s Q3 Gold Demand Trends report, which noted “very strong and accelerating buying” by both central banks and individual investors (source).
Regarding silver, projections include a possible target price range of $85 to $95, supported by expectations that the gold-to-silver ratio will break down from a four-year range to reach around 57. This outlook is seen as consistent with gold nearing a $5,000 peak in the current cycle.
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