Fidelity: Bitcoin Undervalued as US Job Openings Drop Sharply

Fidelity Digital Assets has indicated that Bitcoin (BTC) is trending toward undervaluation, maintaining an “optimistic” mid-term outlook according to their latest market analysis. The investment firm’s assessment comes as Bitcoin’s market signals show a cooling from previously overheated levels in Q4 2024.

According to the firm’s latest report, the “Bitcoin Yardstick” metric—which measures Bitcoin’s market capitalization relative to its network hashrate—indicates the cryptocurrency is becoming more affordable compared to its network security. During Q1 2025, the metric remained between -1 and 3 standard deviations, with days exceeding 2 standard deviations dropping from 22 to 15.

Bitcoin’s Changing Supply Dynamics

The report highlighted significant shifts in Bitcoin’s supply characteristics. Illiquid supply—representing coins held by long-term investors—increased from 61.50% to 63.49%, while liquid supply decreased by 4%. These figures suggest growing commitment from holders to maintain their positions rather than actively trading.

This trend aligns with major institutional movements, as BlackRock‘s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) ETF recorded substantial inflows, including $970.9 million on April 28 alone. Since April 22, IBIT has attracted over $4.5 billion in net inflows, now commanding a 51% market share of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs with approximately $54 billion under management.

Labor Market Data Boosts Bitcoin Prospects

Bitcoin received additional support from the March 2025 U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) report, which showed job openings falling to 7.19 million from February’s 7.57 million—below the forecasted 7.48 million. This decline suggests cooling in the labor market, potentially encouraging the Federal Reserve to implement interest rate cuts sooner.

Economist Alex Kruger identified the JOLTS data as beneficial for Bitcoin in the short term, characterizing the cryptocurrency as a “risk/Gold hybrid” positioned to benefit from potential tariff de-escalation. Kruger predicted that markets would focus on corporate earnings guidance while anticipating next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where Chairman Powell might signal earlier rate cuts.

Despite projecting market volatility and an economic slowdown in Q3, Kruger suggested Bitcoin’s risk-reward profile would likely outperform altcoins, which he described as currently overbought.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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