- Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded seven straight days of inflows, totaling $1.16 billion, according to data from SoSoValue.
- Bitcoin’s price has risen 14% since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, diverging from declines seen in Gold and the S&P 500.
- The crypto market’s rally faces a crucial test with the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting today.
- Traders assign a 98.9% chance the Fed will keep rates steady, per CME’s FedWatch tool.
The sustained rally in Bitcoin and its exchange-traded funds faces a pivotal moment today, as the Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its latest policy decision. This comes after spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. recorded a seven-day inflow streak, pulling in $1.16 billion and signaling renewed institutional confidence. Consequently, weekly flows have now notched a four-week streak, accumulating $2.52 billion.
However, this bullish momentum has unfolded against a tense macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop. Bitcoin is up roughly 14% from its low as the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, even as gold and the S&P 500 declined. This divergence reflects a “classic seller exhaustion” phase, according to SynFutures CEO Rachel Lin. She told Decrypt that once forced selling subsides, modest inflows create an outsized impact.
Meanwhile, experts warn the flow streak is a double-edged sword, making Bitcoin’s recovery more durable yet highly sensitive to macroeconomic shifts. “Without a clear shift in liquidity conditions or policy expectations, we expect inflows to be episodic rather than a sustained one-way trend,” Lin explained. Traders overwhelmingly expect the Fed to hold rates steady, with tools like FedWatch showing a 98.9% probability.
Consequently, markets are trading cautiously ahead of the announcement. “Any dovish tone from the Federal Reserve could support risk assets, including Bitcoin, while a hawkish stance may trigger short-term volatility,” said Bitget CEO Gracy Chen. On the prediction market Myriad, users assign just an 11% chance the Fed will cut rates by more than 25bps before July.
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