- Bitcoin‘s traditional four-year price cycle, linked to halving events, is under debate.
- Experts like Matt Hougan and Cathie Wood argue the cycle may be obsolete due to increased institutional acceptance.
- The four-year cycle involves price surges followed by significant crashes after supply-reducing halving events.
- Jurrien Timmer from Fidelity sees the cycle as still intact, citing historical price patterns and expected support levels.
- Bear markets after halving-induced rallies typically last about one year, with 2026 expected to be such a period.
Bitcoin’s well-known four-year price cycle, connected to the cryptocurrency’s halving events, is being questioned by some market experts. Notable figures such as Bitwise’s Matt Hougan and Ark Invest‘s Cathie Wood argue that the traditional boom and bust cycle may no longer apply due to broader regulatory and institutional integration. They believe bitcoin’s evolving role within the established financial system could alter its historical price behavior.
The four-year cycle refers to a recurring price pattern linked to bitcoin’s halving, which happens approximately every four years. During halving events, the reward miners receive per block is cut by 50%, causing a supply reduction or supply shock. Historically, these supply shocks have triggered sharp price increases, often followed by crashes of around 80%, before prices gradually rise again until the next halving.
Analysts who study charts point out that past halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020 showed this sequence of price surges and declines. They note that the 2024 halving appeared to follow the trend, with prices reaching a peak near $125,000 in October 2025 before entering a bear market phase.
However, Jurrien Timmer, the director of global macro at asset manager Fidelity, recently highlighted that his data does not support claims that the four-year cycle is obsolete. According to Timmer, the price rally lasting 145 weeks and peaking at $125,000 aligns with expectations based on previous cycles.
Timmer also discussed what lies ahead, expecting a bear market “winter” that typically lasts about a year. He mentioned that 2026 might be an “off year” for bitcoin’s price movement. He identified a support price range between $65,000 and $75,000, suggesting that this range could act as a floor during market downturns.
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