- Cryptocurrency market narratives often lack onchain data validation, instead relying on sensationalist sentiment, according to CryptoQuant contributor “Onchained”.
- Data shows Bitcoin long-term holders are not capitulating despite contrary market narratives, with the Inactive Supply Shift Index indicating low selling pressure.
- Traditional theories like the Bitcoin 4-year halving cycle are being challenged, with some analysts suggesting crypto has entered longer market cycles.
Crypto analyst warns of rampant misinformation as market narratives contradict blockchain data. False narratives about Bitcoin holder behavior are circulating widely despite contradictory onchain metrics, highlighting the gap between market sentiment and verifiable blockchain activity.
CryptoQuant contributor “Onchained” said in a March 22 market report that investors should exercise caution amid misleading information flows. “Beware of misinformation. Despite the data, misleading narratives persist,” the analyst noted.
The discrepancy between popular narratives and blockchain evidence is particularly evident in discussions about Bitcoin long-term holder (LTH) behavior. While some market commentators claim these investors—defined as those holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days—are capitulating, onchain metrics tell a different story.
“Such claims often lack onchain validation and are driven by sensationalist market sentiment rather than objective analysis,” Onchained emphasized, adding: “Trust data, not noise, verify sources and cross-check onchain metrics.”
The Inactive Supply Shift Index (ISSI), which measures movement patterns of dormant Bitcoin supply, shows minimal selling pressure from long-term holders. According to Onchained, this data “reinforces a narrative of structural demand outpacing supply,” directly contradicting claims of widespread LTH capitulation.
Glassnode, another crypto analytics platform, independently confirmed these findings, noting that “Long-Term Holder activity remains largely subdued, with a notable decline in their sell-side pressure.”
Beyond holder behavior, fundamental crypto market theories face ongoing scrutiny. The long-established 4-year cycle theory—which links Bitcoin’s price action to its halving events occurring every four years—is increasingly contested.
MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said on March 22, “I assume that we can erase the entire 4-year cycle theory and that we’re in a longer cycle for Altcoins.”
Bitwise Invest chief investment officer Matt Hougan expressed similar views, stating that “the traditional four-year cycle is over in crypto” due to shifting U.S. government positions. Hougan believes crypto market patterns will now unfold over decade-long timeframes rather than the previously observed shorter cycles.
Some analysts have taken even more decisive stances. CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju said on March 17, “Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6-12 months of bearish or sideways price action.” Ju pointed to onchain metrics indicating diminished liquidity and selling by newer whale investors at reduced prices.
The conflicting interpretations underscore the importance of separating verifiable blockchain data from speculative market commentary—especially during periods of heightened volatility and narrative competition in cryptocurrency markets.
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