- Derivatives and onchain data show a lack of bullish conviction, as 43% of Bitcoin holders remain at a loss despite recent price gains.
- Surging AI energy demand is squeezing miner profits to record lows, forcing major listed firms to offload BTC and pivot to computing.
- Traders face a psychological hurdle at $76,000, the average cost basis for major corporate holders like Strategy.
Bitcoin surged to a four-week high on Wednesday, potentially clearing a path toward its $78,700 monthly close from January. However, several onchain and derivatives metrics suggest bears remain comfortable, with demand for downside protection through options dominating the market.
Put options recently traded at a 10% premium relative to call instruments at Deribit. This cautious mood stems partly from the fact that 43% of the supply is held at a loss, according to Glassnode data. Traders fear these investors will create persistent sell pressure as prices recover.
Meanwhile, the Bitcoin mining sector faces significant pressure from rising AI-driven energy costs. The Bitcoin Hashprice index, which measures expected mining revenue, plummeted to $30, pushing profitability toward all-time lows. Consequently, several major listed mining firms are pivoting toward AI computing and offloading their Bitcoin holdings.
Another key resistance level is $76,000, the average acquisition price for Strategy. Market participants looking to suppress the price have strong incentives to keep Bitcoin pegged below this corporate cost basis. Therefore, a recovery toward $78,700 may take longer than expected, though momentum could shift if that key level is breached.
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