- Bitcoin currently trades at a 40% discount to its intrinsic value of $130,000, according to Capriole Investments.
- Over 36,000 Bitcoin were withdrawn from major exchanges on April 25, potentially signaling institutional buying.
- Bitcoin’s current price pattern resembles its Q4 2024 behavior, which could push prices above $100,000.
Bitcoin is trading at approximately 40% below its intrinsic value, according to analysis shared by Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments. The cryptocurrency’s energy value—calculated based on mining costs and energy consumption—stands at around $130,000 following the April 2024 halving event, which reduced block rewards to 3.125 BTC.
In a recent post on X, Edwards highlighted this significant valuation gap, suggesting potential upside for the leading cryptocurrency. This assessment comes as Bitcoin experiences its strongest weekly performance of 2025.
Data from CryptoQuant shows that approximately 8,756 BTC (valued at $830 million) were withdrawn from Coinbase on April 24. Additionally, Binance saw outflows of 27,750 BTC on April 25, which Alphractal founder Joao Wedson described as "the third largest Bitcoin outflow in the exchange’s history."
These substantial exchange outflows coincide with significant spot Bitcoin ETF inflows. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that institutions went on a "$3 billion Bitcoin bender" over the past few days. However, Wedson cautioned that large outflows don’t automatically guarantee continued price increases, stating: "In 2021, massive outflows didn’t prevent the dump triggered by China‘s crypto ban (April–May). On the other hand, continuous outflows over several days, like during the FTX collapse, signaled a bottom and recovery."
Bitcoin’s Fractal Pattern Points to Potential $100K Breakthrough
Bitcoin’s current price action closely resembles its behavior from late 2024. The cryptocurrency has risen approximately 11% between April 21-25, similar to its 13% increase between November 5-9 last year. This pattern comparison suggests Bitcoin could see an additional 7-10% jump in the coming days, potentially pushing it above the $100,000 mark.
The relative strength index (RSI) is also exhibiting similar buying pressure to what was observed in Q4 2024, lending further credence to this fractal comparison. However, unlike the Q4 period when Bitcoin entered price discovery with minimal resistance, the current overhead resistance level at $96,100 could present a significant hurdle.
Market Implications of Bitcoin’s Discount
The 40% discount to intrinsic value identified by Edwards suggests Bitcoin may be undervalued at current prices. When combined with the substantial exchange outflows and institutional buying through ETFs, these factors paint a potentially bullish outlook.
However, market analysts caution that fractal patterns, while interesting for comparison, aren’t perfectly reliable indicators of future price movement. The cryptocurrency market remains susceptible to various external factors that could impact Bitcoin’s trajectory, regardless of historical patterns or valuation metrics.
This outlook comes as Bitcoin posts its highest weekly return since November 2024, reinforcing the parallel between current market conditions and those witnessed during the previous bull run.
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