- Bitcoin regained value after last week’s sell-off, pushing the total cryptocurrency market above $4 trillion.
- Analysts suggest the traditional four-year Bitcoin Price cycle may no longer apply due to increased adoption and large institutional buying.
- Major figures and companies such as Donald Trump, Elon Musk’s SpaceX, and bitcoin ETFs, have influenced recent market shifts.
- Analysts now expect less extreme price swings, with bitcoin alternating between periods of growth and stable consolidation.
- Recent market moves are driven more by major events than by previous calendar-based cycles, according to expert commentary.
The value of bitcoin climbed this week after a significant drop, helping the global cryptocurrency market surpass $4 trillion once again. The price of bitcoin, which had fallen to around $115,000 per bitcoin last week, rebounded to nearly $120,000. This recovery occurred alongside predictions from U.S. President Donald Trump about the future of crypto and ongoing speculation around key industry players.
Market analysts said that the historical pattern of extreme bull and bear cycles may be ending. Mitchell Askew, an analyst at bitcoin mining firm Blockware, stated on social media that “the days of parabolic bull markets and devastating bear markets are over,” echoing similar comments from Ki Young Ju of CryptoQuant who believes the traditional four-year cycle theory for bitcoin is outdated.
Askew also wrote that he expects the price of bitcoin to reach $1 million within ten years, with the market moving in phases of sharp increases followed by periods of stability. “It will bore everyone to death along the way and shake the tourists out of their positions. Strap in,” Askew said. In the past, bitcoin hit record highs after “halving” events—where the reward given to miners for validating transactions is cut in half to reduce new supply. The latest halving was in April 2024, reducing the block reward to 3.125 bitcoins per block.
Institutional investors have contributed to current market structure shifts. Companies such as Strategy now hold 600,000 bitcoin worth about $72 billion. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), led by BlackRock, collectively own 1.5 million bitcoin valued at $175 billion. This large-scale holding is steering market momentum and may explain recent changes in pricing patterns.
Other crypto commentators, such as Kyle Chassé, agree that mass adoption has changed how the market behaves. Chassé posted on social media that “the four-year cycle is dead and adoption killed it.” Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, said in a recent interview, “The long-term pro-crypto forces will overwhelm the classic ‘four-year cycle’ forces, to the extent those exist, and that 2026 will be a good year.” He added that it could be more of a “sustained steady boom” than an explosive cycle.
However, experts warn that unpredictable events could still lead to sudden price changes. Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, noted that recent bitcoin rallies resulted from specific triggers or events, such as changes in U.S. Federal Reserve policies, political developments, ETF approvals, or regulatory interventions, rather than a regular cycle. In his words, “In crypto, momentum is sparked by events, not driven by the calendar.”
Despite changing trends, observers highlight that significant momentum in the crypto market often depends on timely developments, prompting investors to closely watch for major announcements or global shifts.
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