- Some investors believe the current Bitcoin market cycle may end in the fourth quarter.
- Recent data shows the 200-week moving average (200WMA) for bitcoin has exceeded $53,000 for the first time.
- The realized price, which is the average price at which all bitcoin last moved on the blockchain, is now above the 200WMA at $54,000.
- In past bull markets, the realized price staying above the 200WMA has signaled continued growth, while falling below it signaled downturns.
- Current trends match early-stage bull markets seen in previous cycles, suggesting more upside is possible.
Many investors are watching the bitcoin market as the fourth quarter approaches, expecting it could signal the end of the current growth cycle. However, two important indicators suggest that the rising trend could still be in an early phase.
According to data from Glassnode, the 200-week moving average (200WMA)—a long-term price trend line—has risen above $53,000. The realized price, which averages the price of all bitcoins last moved on the blockchain, recently moved above this average to $54,000.
The article notes, “In bull markets, the realized price tends to stay above the 200-WMA, while in bear markets, the opposite occurs.” This pattern has appeared in earlier bull markets, such as in 2017 and 2021, where the realized price climbed higher above the 200WMA before the market declined.
During the market downturn in 2022, the realized price dropped below the 200WMA. It has only recently moved above this benchmark again. Historically, when the realized price stays above the 200-week moving average, bitcoin prices have tended to move higher as the bull market continues.
These technical measures indicate there may be room for further growth, contrary to the belief that the market is nearing a cycle top. Investors often watch these averages to gauge momentum and possible changes in trend.
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