- The price of Bitcoin has stalled in 2025, staying around $110,000 per coin after major gains in previous years.
- Nakamoto, a bitcoin treasury company, saw its share price drop by 50% in one day, leaving it down 95% from its late May peak.
- Nakamoto’s market value now trades below the worth of its bitcoin holdings, raising concerns about broader market risks.
- Industry observers warn that forced sales from struggling bitcoin treasury companies like Nakamoto could lead to a “death spiral” for bitcoin prices.
- David Bailey, Nakamoto’s CEO, has advised shareholders seeking short-term gains to exit, and pointed to increased volatility ahead.
Bitcoin prices have paused in recent months, hovering near $110,000 per coin in 2025 after strong rallies last year. As a result, some firms that invested heavily in the cryptocurrency are facing significant losses.
Nakamoto, a bitcoin treasury company established this year, experienced a drastic 50% share price decline on Monday. This brings its total drop to 95% from a late May peak. The company’s stock is now valued at less than the worth of its nearly 6,000 bitcoin holdings, an unusual situation for a firm aiming to make gains from holding the digital asset.
Nakamoto recently merged with Kindly MD and spent $700 million to buy bitcoin, planning to increase holdings through more stock sales and debt. At its high point, Nakamoto traded at more than 20 times the value of its bitcoin, but now its market-to-net-asset-value (mNAV) is only 0.7, according to BitcoinTreasuries.net. For context, an mNAV of 1 means that a company’s market capitalization is equal to the value of its bitcoin holdings, while anything below 1 indicates the market values the company less than its assets.
In June, venture capital group Breed warned about the risk of a Bitcoin Price “death spiral” if treasury companies with mNAVs below 1 are forced to liquidate holdings. Breed’s analysts wrote, “Without Strategy’s scale, reputation, and passive index inflows, they will likely raise capital on tougher terms and at higher leverage ratios. In a downturn, those aggressive structures could accelerate margin calls and distressed bitcoin sales, amplifying downside pressure across the market.”
David Bailey, CEO of Nakamoto and a bitcoin advisor to former U.S. President Donald Trump, addressed concerns after the share crash. Posting on X, he said, “The only way out is through,” and called it “critical” that the firm builds an aligned base of shareholders. In a shareholder letter, Bailey warned of rising volatility, advising, “Shareholders who have come looking for a trade, I encourage you to exit.”
Bailey also blamed Nakamoto’s poor performance on a surge in other companies trying to copy the bitcoin treasury model. He posted, “Toxic financing, failed altcoins rebranded as DATs [digital asset treasuries], too many failed companies with no plan or vision. It’s totally muddled the narrative.”
Other companies in the sector, like Strategy, which began buying bitcoin in 2020 and now holds about 638,000 bitcoin (worth roughly $73 billion), have met with more consistent success, even being added to the Nasdaq 100 index.
Some analysts suggest that newer treasury firms without the established advantages of companies like Strategy could face more risk, especially if falling stock prices force them to sell bitcoin at a loss. This dynamic may add to concerns about the stability of the broader crypto market.
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