- About $22.6 billion in Bitcoin options contracts are set to expire on Friday, with most traders holding bullish positions.
- The options market currently favors call (buy) options if Bitcoin’s price remains above $112,000.
- Deribit has the largest share of open interest, handling $17.4 billion in Bitcoin options, compared to $1.9 billion each at OKX and CME.
- Roughly 81% of put (sell) options are set at $110,000 or lower, giving an edge to bullish outcomes, though downside risks remain.
- Macroeconomic data releases on Thursday could influence market direction before the options expiry.
A major Bitcoin options expiry involving $22.6 billion in contracts will take place Friday, a key event for market participants watching whether the cryptocurrency can hold above the $112,000 mark. The majority of current bets are positioned for a bullish outcome, as long as Bitcoin’s price stays above this support level.
Deribit leads the market with $17.4 billion in options open interest for this expiry, while OKX and CME each have $1.9 billion. Analysts note that call options, or bets on Bitcoin’s price rising, outnumber put options, which are used as downside protection or speculation.
Open interest data shows put positions total about 20% less than the $12.6 billion in call options. The final impact will depend on Bitcoin’s settlement price at 8:00 am UTC on Friday. The largest share of active call contracts are set at $120,000 and higher, but only about $3.3 billion remain in range if prices hold above $112,000.
According to market data, 81% of puts on Deribit are positioned at $110,000 or lower, making it unlikely they will be profitable unless a sharp drop occurs. The delta skew metric, which compares demand for puts and calls, currently shows moderate fear and a slight premium for puts. This suggests traders and market makers remain mindful of risks below current price levels, which sit near $113,500.
Scenarios for expiry payouts vary, with calls favored if Bitcoin trades above $112,100. If the price lands between $112,100 and $115,000, calls could outperform puts by $660 million. Below $110,000, however, puts would dominate.
Key U.S. economic data, including gross domestic product figures and jobless claims due on Thursday, may shift market sentiment before the contracts settle. Interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve and labor market trends continue to affect trader confidence in digital assets like Bitcoin.
For now, market positioning points to a bullish lean ahead of the monthly options deadline, but a price drop below $112,000 remains a risk for call holders. More information and data on open interest can be found at laevitas.ch.
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