- Bitcoin (BTC) price rose toward $90,000 after U.S. inflation data showed a lower-than-expected increase in November.
- Onchain data indicates Bitcoin is in a balance-sheet repair phase with loss absorption rather than widespread selling.
- New positions in Bitcoin are being established, supported by rising open interest and balanced options gamma exposure.
- Bitcoin must surpass $90,000 and close above the monthly volume-weighted average price (VWAP) to confirm stronger buyer interest.
- The Bank of Japan‘s upcoming interest rate decision could influence Bitcoin’s short-term volatility but may already be priced in.
In response to U.S. inflation cooling more than anticipated, Bitcoin (BTC) neared the $90,000 mark. The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.7% year-over-year, below the 3.1% forecast, bringing inflation closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. This softer inflation figure eased short-term concerns and helped revive risk appetite in financial markets.
Crypto trader Back noted on X that Bitcoin’s price increase was accompanied by rising open interest. This suggests fresh market positioning rather than just covering of short positions. Options gamma exposure, a measure of sensitivity to price movements, remains balanced around the current price, allowing potential for further movement if market liquidity expands.
Despite the recent rise, some view the price action as impulsive rather than signaling a new trend. This initial rally, driven by liquidity, leaves room for short-term pullbacks as traders reassess their positions. The Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision on December 19 is the final major macroeconomic event of the year. Although policy shifts from the Bank of Japan could affect global liquidity via the yen funding markets, Bitcoin’s recent price behavior suggests the market may already have priced in much of this risk.
Onchain analysis from CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin has been in a balance-sheet repair phase since October. Key metrics like net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) show that unrealized losses have stopped increasing. The spent-output profit ratio (SOPR), which measures coin sales relative to purchase price, hovers near breakeven. This points to selling near cost rather than panic selling. Exchange deposits spike briefly during price drops and fade as prices stabilize, indicating reactive selling pressure.
Technically, Bitcoin needs to regain and close above the $90,000 level and the monthly VWAP to demonstrate strong buyer conviction. Immediate sell-side liquidity exists between $90,500 and $92,000. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim these levels, increased short positioning could drive a test of swing lows near $83,800.
For more detailed Bitcoin analysis, see the coverage linked from Back and CryptoQuant.
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