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Bitcoin Faces Key Correction as Uptrend Nears Cycle Limit, Analysts Say

  • Bitcoin has been in a six-week uptrend, with signs a correction may be near.
  • Previous halving cycles show similar uptrends lasting five to seven weeks before a pullback.
  • A price drop would still allow for new all-time highs later in the year.
  • The current price is below $120,000, with a recent high at $124,500.
  • September often brings declines, but historical data points to strong performance in the final quarter.

Bitcoin is approaching the end of its latest sustained price increase, with the start of the seventh week showing the price remaining under $120,000. Market analysts have noted that this could signal an upcoming correction, based on established trends in previous cycles.

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A recent analysis by Rekt Capital reported that each halving event for Bitcoin is followed by a series of uptrends, each ending in a correction phase. The current cycle mirrors past patterns, with uptrends typically lasting between five and seven weeks before prices pull back. The highest price recorded during the current cycle is $124,500, and a linked chart sets an upside target just below $160,000.

“Historically, Bitcoin Price Discovery Uptrend 1 tends to end between Week 6 & 8 of its uptrend. Whereas in Price Discovery Uptrend 2, Bitcoin tends to end its uptrend between Week 5 & 7,” explained Rekt Capital. In prior years, corrections started between weeks six and eight, with the most recent significant pullback sending prices from almost $110,000 down to under $75,000—a decline of around 30%, which is common for these cycles.

Additional data from CoinGlass shows that Bitcoin rose by 2.1% in August, slightly above average. September, as noted by market observer Daan Crypto Trades, often brings a reduction in price, averaging a 3.8% drawdown. “Any larger flushes in the next 1-2 months would be welcomed and could very well be the last larger dip for the Q4 end of the year rally which we see so often. If not, that’s fine too but I think it would pull forward a bigger high timeframe top as well,” said Daan Crypto Trades.

These movements align with historical data, which suggests that even after a pullback now, Bitcoin could see new all-time highs by the end of the year. The data and trends discussed reflect market observations, not investment advice.

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For more details, see the analyst’s X post here and the latest newsletter here. Monthly return data is available through CoinGlass.

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