- Traders expect volatile Bitcoin moves around the US interest-rate decision, with Bitcoin testing resistance near $90,000.
- Markets price a near-certain chance the US Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged at 3.5–3.75% today, according to data from Polymarket.
- Futures markets show about a 97.2% probability of no rate change, per the CME FedWatch tool.
- Analysts say the $80,000–$84,000 band is key support; a break could push Bitcoin as low as $65,500.
- Market participants will watch Jerome Powell’s press conference and weakening US dollar trends for guidance on near-term risk appetite.
Bitcoin is testing resistance near $90,000 on Wednesday as traders brace for swings around the US interest-rate decision and related Fed commentary. Markets have largely priced in unchanged rates, but analysts say Powell’s remarks could still drive volatility in risk assets.
Data shows a near-100% probability that rates will remain between 3.5% and 3.75%, according to Polymarket. The CME FedWatch tool places the odds of no change at about 97.2%, with only a small chance of a 25-basis-point cut.
Traders noted additional sources of volatility, including moves in Japan, US government funding risks, and central-bank yen operations. Satoshi Stacker posted on X that "All eyes will be on Powell’s press conference and what he suggests the Fed’s plans are for the coming months," linking his comment to the original post on X.
Some market participants see upside if Fed language hints at earlier cuts. Crypto investor Kiran Gadakh wrote on X that "If we hear any hints of cuts in March, Bitcoin sends to the moon."
Analysts emphasize technical levels. Daan Crypto Trades highlighted the importance of the $84,000 area, linked to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement, in a post on X, adding that action is needed soon to maintain structure. Loss of roughly $81,000 would, in one analyst’s view, risk a broader capitulation similar to 2022, with the next major support cited near $65,500 by Joao Wedson on X.
The US dollar index recently fell to a four-year low near 95.55, a move tracked on TradingView. Historically, a weaker dollar has supported risk assets like Bitcoin by easing global financial conditions.
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