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Bitcoin, Ethereum Plunge as Crypto Investors Flee for Equities

Bitcoin Falls to $103,000 as Morgan Stanley Analysts Warn of ‘Fall Season’ in Four-Year Cycle

  • Major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, posted declines despite signs of progress toward ending the U.S. government shutdown.
  • Investors have shifted toward equities amid hopes for lower interest rates and positive economic data.
  • Morgan Stanley analysts cautioned that Bitcoin may be entering the “fall season” of its typical four-year cycle, signaling a period for profit-taking.
  • Retail sentiment remains bearish on Bitcoin, with expectations for lower prices in the near future.

Bitcoin and other leading digital assets experienced price drops as investors continued to move away from cryptocurrencies. At the time of writing, Bitcoin had fallen 1.6% to approximately $103,559, according to CoinMarketCap data, while Ethereum decreased by 3.1% to $3,448 and XRP slipped 2.4% to $2.39. Other major tokens also showed declines, with BNB losing 1.9%, Solana dropping more than 5%, and Dogecoin down 2.6%.

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BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas attributed recent weakness to large-scale selling by major holders. Lucas noted, “Bitcoin faces heavy whale selling, $45 billion offloaded since October. Resistance at $110,800 is key, while support sits at the 50-week SMA near $103,000.” A simple moving average (SMA) is a common technical indicator used to identify support and resistance levels in trading.

Global equities advanced, buoyed by the prospect of the U.S. government reopening after the longest shutdown in the nation’s history. The House of Representatives is set to vote on a temporary funding bill that would keep the government open until January 30. The measure has already cleared the Senate, and Speaker Mike Johnson expressed optimism about its passage.

Investor sentiment continues to favor equities over cryptocurrencies due to the potential for lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve. Crypto investor Ted Pillows stated, “We could see a relief bounce when the government shutdown ends today. But in my opinion, the downtrend is in.”

Discussions on the social platform Stocktwits indicated that retail traders remain largely pessimistic about Bitcoin’s near-term outlook. One user commented that widespread expectations for ongoing bearishness might delay a broad move back into cryptocurrencies until 2026.

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Morgan Stanley analysts emphasized that Bitcoin may be entering the “fall season” of its four-year market cycle, which typically features three up years followed by a down year. Denny Galindo, investment strategist at the firm, explained, “Fall is the time for harvest. So, it’s the time you want to take your gains. But the debate is how long this fall will last and when the next winter will start.” However, other analysts, such as Arthur Hayes of Maelstrom, believe favorable monetary conditions could delay a bear market for Bitcoin.

For further information, see JPMorgan-launches-jpm-coin-for-institutional-clients-expands-push-into-blockchain-payments-report”>JPMorgan’s recent blockchain initiatives.

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