- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF netflows saw their largest daily outflow since mid-February, hitting -$88 million as institutional investors sold into recent price strength.
- Bitcoin faces strong resistance near $82,000, with analysts identifying $77,000 as a crucial support level that could trigger a deeper market correction if broken.
- The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.52% and April CPI rose 3.8%, pushing back expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and cooling risk appetite.
Bitcoin struggled to hold above $80,000 this week as institutional investors pulled capital from spot ETFs and macroeconomic headwinds intensified. According to Glassnode analysts, the 7-day moving average of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF netflows dropped to -$88 million per day, representing the largest outflow since mid-February. They noted that “institutional participants were using the recovery over the recent days as an exit, not responding to fear.”
Consequently, the leading cryptocurrency faced a formidable resistance zone between $82,000 and $84,000, a level encompassing its ETF cost basis and 200-day moving average. Tim Sun, a senior researcher at HashKey Group, pointed to $77,000 as a key support level, warning that a break below it while perpetual swap open interest remains high “could enter a deleveraging phase, potentially deepening the decline.” The market dynamics unfolded against a challenging macroeconomic backdrop where the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit 4.52% and April’s Consumer Price Index rose 3.8% year-over-year—the highest reading in three years.
Meanwhile, these inflation figures pushed back market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. Alex Tsepaev, Chief Strategy Officer at B2PRIME Group, told Decrypt his base case is for zero rate cuts this year, with one late cut possible only if inflation cools and labor markets weaken. Myriad prediction market users placed just a 4% chance on the Fed cutting rates by more than 25 basis points before July. However, they remained optimistic about Bitcoin’s near-term price, assigning an 88% chance its next major move would be a rally to $84,000 rather than a fall to $55,000.
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