- Bitcoin is showing signs of decoupling from the stock market and trading more like precious metals, reinforcing its position as a safe-haven asset.
- Despite ongoing US-China trade tensions, Bitcoin demonstrated resilience with a 12% recovery in the two weeks leading to April 22, unlike altcoins and traditional stock indexes.
- JPMorgan has raised US recession probability to 60%, which could impact investor appetite for risk assets despite Bitcoin’s growing stability.
Bitcoin is increasingly trading like a precious metal rather than following stock market trends, signaling its evolution into a safe-haven asset amid global economic uncertainty. According to Alex Svanevik, CEO of the Nansen crypto intelligence platform, Bitcoin has become "less Nasdaq — more Gold" over the past two weeks, showing growing maturity as a global asset.
The leading cryptocurrency posted a 12% recovery in the two weeks before April 22, despite escalating trade tensions between the world’s largest economies. This resilience came as the US raised tariffs on China to 125% from April 9, with China responding by increasing its import tariffs from 84% to 125% effective April 12.
Svanevik told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin showed surprising strength compared to altcoins and indexes like the S&P 500 during this period of trade hostility. However, he cautioned that Bitcoin remains vulnerable to broader recession concerns, noting, "We expect gold to be more resilient, although gold holdings could be net sold in case investors panic and want to cover margin call. This was seen one to two days at the worst of the trade war earlier this month."
US Bitcoin Reserve Plans Boost Market Confidence
Bitcoin’s performance continues to benefit from positive regulatory developments, particularly news related to the US Bitcoin Reserve. Bo Hines of the Presidential Council of Advisers for Digital Assets revealed on April 14 that the US is exploring "many creative ways" to fund its Bitcoin investments, including using tariff revenue and reevaluating Treasury gold certificates.
While the reserve will initially hold Bitcoin confiscated in government criminal cases, President Trump’s executive order has instructed the administration to develop "budget-neutral strategies" for acquiring additional Bitcoin. This governmental endorsement has provided further support for Bitcoin’s value proposition as a legitimate asset class.
Economic Headwinds May Test Bitcoin’s Resilience
Despite Bitcoin’s newfound stability amid trade tensions, a potential US recession could dampen investor appetite for risk assets. JPMorgan has increased its probability assessment for a US recession in 2025 from 40% to 60%, according to an April 15 research report.
"The latest unwinding of the Liberation Day tariffs reduces the shock to the global trading order, but the remaining universal 10% tariff is still a material threat to growth and the 145% tariff on China keeps the probability of a recession at 60%," the investment bank stated.
JPMorgan expects the Federal Reserve to begin easing monetary policy in September, implementing cuts at each subsequent meeting through January 2026, with the goal of reaching a 3% policy rate by June 2026.
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