- Barclays sees Robinhood’s Q4 transaction revenue coming in slightly below estimates based on December operating metrics.
- December showed recovery in options and at Bitstamp, while equities and crypto app volumes softened.
- A shortfall in crypto sales should be largely offset by other revenue, led by prediction markets, the note said.
- November operating data showed 26.9 million funded customers, $325 billion in platform assets and $7.1 billion in net deposits.
Barclays analysts reviewed preliminary December metrics and said they expect Robinhood to miss Q4 transaction revenue estimates slightly. The firm cited mixed trading trends across products and noted a crypto sales shortfall that may be mostly offset by stronger non-transaction revenue. According to the note, the firm kept an Overweight rating and a $171 price target.
Benjamin Budish (Barclays) reported December activity showed a recovery in options trading and rising volumes at Bitstamp. Equities trading fell modestly and app-based crypto volumes dropped more sharply. The bank said prediction markets led the offsetting strength in other revenue streams.
November operating data showed 26.9 million funded customers, down roughly 130,000 from October due to the escheatment of nearly 280,000 low-balance accounts; excluding that impact, customers would have risen by about 150,000. Total platform assets were $325 billion, down 5% month-on-month and up 67% year-over-year. Net deposits totaled $7.1 billion, implying a 25% annualized growth rate.
Trading volumes declined sequentially. Equity notional volumes fell 37% to $201.5 billion and options contracts traded dropped 28% to 193.2 million, though both were higher year-over-year. Crypto notional volumes decreased 12% to $28.6 billion, with app-based volumes down 14% and Bitstamp down 11%. Event contracts traded rose 20% to 3 billion.
Other balance-sheet and revenue items: margin balances increased 2% to $16.8 billion, cash sweep balances declined 5% to $32.5 billion, and securities lending revenue was $34 million, down 43% sequentially but up 48% year-over-year.
In December, Robinhood expanded its tokenized asset offering by about 500 instruments, bringing the total to nearly 2,000 tokenized assets. Data showed U.S. equities accounted for roughly 73% of deployed tokens and ETFs about 24%.
Retail sentiment on Stocktwits was described as “bearish” amid normal message volume; a sentiment graphic is available here (sentiment and message volume). An image resource used in the original report is also available (image file).
Definitions:
– Transaction revenue (fees and commissions tied to trading activity).
– Notional volumes (the total dollar value of trades executed).
– Margin balances (borrowed funds customers use to trade).
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