- Bitcoin faces the risk of a renewed sell-off if talk of a Japanese yen intervention turns into action.
- Previous yen intervention periods saw roughly 30% BTC drawdowns followed by recoveries exceeding 100%.
- Market alerts rose after reports the New York Fed ran USD/JPY “rate checks” over the weekend.
- Onchain metrics from Alphractal show net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) still above zero, indicating no confirmed bottom yet.
- Supply in profit sits near 62%, the lowest since September 2024, and delta growth rate has turned negative.
Markets moved on reports over the weekend that the New York Fed conducted USD/JPY “rate checks,” a step traders sometimes view as a prelude to coordinated currency action, and officials emphasized close U.S.–Japan coordination on currencies, raising intervention concerns (see the original reports here).
Past yen intervention windows coincided with roughly 30% declines in Bitcoin from local highs as yen carry trades unwound, after which BTC later rallied more than 100%. Analyst Mikybull Crypto noted the pattern and said “The same scenario is about to occur now,” adding that BTC “will first dump and rally afterward.” The market could fall toward the $65,000–$70,000 range if that fractal repeats (see the cited commentary here).
Onchain measures reinforce the cautionary view. Data compiled by Alphractal shows NUPL declining but still above zero, meaning the market remains net in profit rather than fully capitulated. Alphractal’s data notes supply in profit at about 62%—the lowest since September 2024 when BTC traded near $30,000—and that the delta growth rate has turned negative (details available here).
Historically, BTC bottoms tended to form only after NUPL moved negative, signaling widespread unrealized losses and washed-out selling pressure. Alphractal warns the process can be painful but often creates long-term buying opportunities.
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