- Social sentiment for XRP has fallen into the “fear zone,” historically preceding price rallies.
- XRP must close above $2 on the daily chart to open the path toward $2.50.
- Key resistance sits at a multi-month descending trendline near $1.92 and between $1.96–$2.00, where investors hold about $1.5 billion in cost basis.
- Institutional interest persists: spot ETFs hold roughly $1.2 billion in assets under management with $1.13 billion in cumulative inflows.
XRP saw social sentiment drop sharply on Monday, increasing the chance of a rebound, according to Santiment said. The platform noted the current negative commentary is greater than average and pointed to past instances where low crowd sentiment preceded price rises.
Those past instances occurred on Nov. 21 and Dec. 5, when price rallies of about 22% and 11% followed. “Historically, this setup leads to price rises,” and “When retail has doubts about a coin’s ability to rise, the rise becomes significantly more likely.”
XRP traded below $1.85 after a 1.8% drop, leaving it about 49% below its seven-year high of $3.66. Market observers noted steady inflows into spot ETFs, with roughly $1.2 billion in assets under management and $1.13 billion in cumulative inflows, as highlighted by DefiPeniel said. “XRP sentiment is ugly again. But the money doesn’t look scared,” and “Markets don’t bottom when vibes improve. They bottom when price holds and sentiment breaks.”
Technical resistance includes a multi-month descending trendline near $1.92 and a concentration of investor cost basis between $1.96 and $2.00 per Glassnode’s cost basis distribution heatmap. The $2.10–$2.50 zone also aligns with major moving averages: the 50-day SMA at $2.10, the 50-week EMA at $2.25, and the 50-week SMA at $2.50.
C3_trading said emphasized the downtrend remains until a breakout above the descending channel, adding “Wait for a breakout above $2.50 for trend shift, otherwise expect continuation lower.”
Downside targets cited include $1.80, $1.75 (reached Dec. 19), and the April low of $1.61; losing $1.61 could increase the likelihood of moves to $1.25 and then $1 in 2026.
Definitions: Sentiment — a measure of social media positivity or negativity toward an asset. SMA (simple moving average) — the average price over a set period. EMA (exponential moving average) — a weighted average that gives more weight to recent prices. Descending trendline — a line connecting falling highs to show downward pressure. Cost basis distribution heatmap — a visual of price levels where investors acquired an asset.
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