- XRP experienced a massive 600% price rally between October 2024 and January 2025, driven by retail investors hoping for benefits from a pro-crypto presidency.
- Recent data indicates waning investor confidence in XRP, with declining active addresses and increasing realized losses.
- Whale outflows exceeding $1 billion over the past two weeks suggest large holders are reducing their XRP positions.
XRP is showing signs of weakening investor confidence after experiencing one of the strongest rallies of the current bull market. Between October 25, 2024, and January 16, 2025, the cryptocurrency surged 600% as investors anticipated benefits from a pro-crypto presidency for Ripple and its digital asset. During this period, daily active addresses increased by 490% and XRP reached a 7-year price high.
Current market data, however, reveals diminishing speculative interest in XRP. While both Bitcoin and XRP have gained 500-600% since bottoming in 2022, XRP’s growth came primarily from a rapid price surge. According to Glassnode data, XRP’s daily active addresses jumped 490% compared to Bitcoin’s modest 10% increase over the past four months.
The recent rally was largely retail-driven, pushing XRP’s realized cap from $30.1 billion to $64.2 billion, with $30 billion flowing in during the last six months. The proportion of XRP’s realized cap held by new investors (less than six months) increased dramatically from 23% to 62.8%. However, capital inflows have significantly decreased since late February 2025.
Declining Investor Confidence
Glassnode analysts noted, “Given the retail-dominated inflows and largely concentrated wealth in relatively new hands, this alludes to a condition where retail investor confidence in XRP may be slipping, and this may also be extended across the broader market.”
The primary factor behind this trend is that investors are securing fewer profits while facing higher losses. This is evidenced by the consistently declining realized loss/profit ratio since the beginning of 2025.
Large XRP holders are also reducing their positions. Data from CryptoQuant shows steady increases in whale outflows since early 2025. Over the past 14 days, large holders have sold more than $1 billion worth of XRP at an average price of $2.10.
Technical Outlook for XRP
XRP has repeatedly tested the $2 support level in recent weeks, with each retest increasing the likelihood of a breakdown. On lower timeframes, a bullish divergence is visible on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, where the price forms a lower low while the relative strength index (RSI) forms a lower high.
With a fair value gap between $2.08 and $2.13, XRP might experience a relief rally into this range, particularly if the broader cryptocurrency market sees an oversold bounce. However, the higher timeframe chart appears bearish due to an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern formation, suggesting a target near $1.07.
The cryptocurrency may potentially find support at its 200-day moving average in the $1.70-$1.80 range, though XRP hasn’t tested this level since November 5, 2024.
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