- XRP remains above a crucial price level, fueling expectations for a possible rebound in October.
- The $2.81 resistance zone is a key hurdle, with technical projections indicating a target near $3.62 if surpassed.
- A significant cluster of demand centers exists around $2.75, but failure to hold this could trigger a drop toward $2.00.
- Historically, October is weak for XRP, but the last quarter of the year often sees substantial price gains.
- Upcoming decisions on XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) may impact prices, with potential for increased inflows or a “sell the news” reaction.
XRP traded near $2.77 at the start of September, despite a 14% decline over the prior two weeks. The cryptocurrency maintained its position above a critical support level, which analysts say could set the stage for a price recovery in October.
Market observers note that XRP’s ability to stay above $2.75 is vital. Technical charts highlight this area as the base of a symmetrical triangle pattern. If XRP closes above the $2.81 resistance—close to its 100-day simple moving average—analysts project a potential rally of about 30%, targeting $3.62.
Support for XRP appears solid, according to data from Glassnode, which indicates that nearly 1.58 billion XRP were acquired at around $2.75. However, a concentration of sell orders sits at $2.81, possibly keeping upward movement limited in the short term. A drop below $2.75 may push the price down to approximately $2.00, described by analysts as the bearish target for this chart formation.
“$XRP is still in a solid bullish consolidation,” wrote market analyst Hardy, adding that the price “upside potential remains in play” as long as the token holds above $2.72–$2.75. Analyst XForceGlobal said increased consolidation at this level could strengthen any future breakout.
Historically, October has been a challenging month for XRP, with the coin closing lower in seven of the past twelve years. The average October return since 2013 is –4.58%. However, fourth quarters have produced strong gains, including rallies of 240% in Q4 2024 and 20% in Q4 2023, according to Cryptorank data.
Attention is also focused on the potential impact of upcoming U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) decisions on XRP ETFs.
Several key deadlines fall between October and November, including Franklin Templeton’s application on November 14 and Ripple predictions of approval by December 31.
Analysts say new ETF products could bring in $4–$8 billion during the first year, but caution that positive news may already be reflected in XRP’s price, raising the risk of a “sell the news” event.
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