- The US Senate has reached a deal on a three-part budget to end the government shutdown.
- The pending funding bill is close to passing a 60-vote threshold in the Senate.
- Bitcoin and the crypto market have been impacted by the shutdown and related market events.
- Prediction markets estimate a more than 50% chance the shutdown will end between Tuesday and Friday.
- The last shutdown ended in January 2019, after which Bitcoin rose over 265% in five months.
The US Senate is close to passing a three-part budget agreement aimed at ending the current government shutdown. The bill has garnered more than enough support to meet the 60-vote threshold, according to reports citing informed sources. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has made 15 attempts to secure Democratic backing for the House-approved legislation, potentially ending a record 40-day closure. An official vote is still pending to finalize the deal.
The ongoing uncertainty surrounding the government shutdown has hindered recovery in the broader cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin. Initially, Bitcoin rallied to a high of $126,080 six days after the shutdown began on October 6 but has since dropped over 17% to $104,370, based on CoinGecko data. On October 10, Bitcoin prices fell sharply following Donald Trump‘s announcement of 100% tariffs on China, which unsettled markets.
Historically, Bitcoin reacted strongly after the previous government shutdown ended in late January 2019. From $3,550, the cryptocurrency surged over 265% to approximately $13,000 in five months. This past performance highlights how market sentiment may shift once the current shutdown concludes.
Prediction market platform Polymarket shows a 54% chance that the shutdown will end between Tuesday and Friday, a significant increase from 27% the previous day. Competitor Kalshi provides similar odds, estimating the closure will conclude on Friday at 44 days in duration. Meanwhile, President Trump announced that most Americans will receive a $2,000 dividend funded by tariff revenues, excluding high-income earners.
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