- Prediction markets show 50-56% odds of a U.S. recession by the end of 2025, up significantly following Trump’s tariff announcement.
- President Trump’s new 10% blanket tariff policy has been criticized by economists as potentially harmful to economic growth.
- Markets responded negatively with major stock indexes and cryptocurrencies falling sharply after the announcement.
Recession odds have jumped significantly on prediction markets following President Donald Trump‘s announcement of a new tariff policy. According to multiple forecasting platforms, the likelihood of a U.S. economic recession by the end of 2025 now stands at 50-56%, up from around 40-43% just days earlier, amid concerns that the proposed tariffs could negatively impact global economic growth.
Polymarket currently shows a 50% chance of recession while Kalshi puts the odds at 56%, both marking substantial increases from their Wednesday forecasts. Additionally, crypto-native platform Myriad Markets indicates a 53.6% probability of recession, according to its market that launched Thursday.
Tariff Policy Triggers Market Concern
The rising recession predictions follow the White House’s Wednesday announcement of a 10% blanket tariff on all U.S. trading partners. During a Rose Garden ceremony, Trump defended the controversial policy, stating, “They will give us growth, these tariffs like we’ve never seen before.”
However, prominent economists have warned about potential negative consequences. Ashish Shah, chief investment officer at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, expressed concern Thursday, saying, “We view this as kind of a growth shock… this is going to be a hit to U.S. consumers.” The Economist magazine offered even sharper criticism, calling the policy “the most profound, harmful and unnecessary economic error in the modern era.”
Markets React Negatively
Financial markets responded dramatically to the tariff announcement, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq and S&P 500 closing down nearly 6% and 5% respectively on Thursday. The cryptocurrency market was not spared, with Bitcoin and major altcoins plummeting and wiping out more than $200 billion in market value.
These market reactions come amid already concerning economic indicators. The March Purchasing Managers’ Index shows prices increasing at their fastest rate since mid-2022 and factory activity contracting. Last week’s Conference Board’s consumer confidence index also fell to its lowest level in four years.
With prediction markets now showing roughly even odds of a recession occurring, investors and economists continue to closely monitor how the implementation of these tariffs might further impact economic conditions in the coming months.
✅ Follow BITNEWSBOT on Telegram, Facebook, LinkedIn, X.com, and Google News for instant updates.
Previous Articles:
- XRP shows recovery signs after $2 support test: RLUSD integration boosts
- US Sanctions Crypto Wallets Tied to Garantex and Houthi Operations
- Cardano Reaches 10.72M Native Tokens & 107.98M Transactions in 2025
- Trump’s Tariffs Force Trezor to Adapt Supply Chains Amid Uncertainty
- Ethereum’s Major Pectra Upgrade Set for May 7 Mainnet Launch
