- Odds increased for Sam Bankman-Fried and Roger Ver to receive presidential pardons after Changpeng Zhao was pardoned.
- Sam Bankman-Fried is serving a 25-year sentence for fraud related to the collapse of FTX.
- Polymarkets showed a jump in the likelihood of Bankman-Fried being pardoned, rising from 5.6% to 12% within half a day.
- Roger Ver agreed to pay $50 million to settle charges related to undisclosed Bitcoin holdings during his expatriation process.
- Market sentiment for Binance’s token remained neutral after these developments.
The odds of a presidential pardon for two high-profile cryptocurrency figures, Sam Bankman-Fried and Roger Ver, rose significantly on online betting platforms following the pardon of Binance founder Changpeng Zhao in early 2025. This change followed Zhao‘s guilty plea to charges regarding anti-money laundering failures, which also resulted in Binance agreeing to pay a $4.3 billion settlement to U.S. regulatory agencies.
According to Polymarkets data, the probability of Bankman-Fried—the former CEO of FTX—receiving a pardon increased from 5.6% to 12% in less than a full day, before settling near 7%. Meanwhile, a separate market tracking the possibility of his release from custody also saw odds rise to 12% from just above 4%. Traders identified Roger Ver, an early cryptocurrency investor, as the next most likely recipient for a pardon this year.
Bankman-Fried is currently serving a 25-year prison sentence after being convicted of misappropriating billions in customer funds, defrauding FTX investors out of more than $1.7 billion, and deceiving lenders for his company Alameda by over $1.3 billion. Despite the increased betting activity, some industry voices questioned if he would actually receive similar treatment as Zhao following his conviction and financial ruin.
Earlier in the month, Ver settled U.S. charges by agreeing to pay $50 million. Authorities claimed he failed to properly disclose his bitcoin holdings when he renounced U.S. citizenship in 2014 and relocated to St. Kitts and Nevis. “We are pleased that Mr Ver has taken responsibility for his past misconduct and satisfied his obligations to the American public,” said Ketan Bhirud, Associate Deputy Attorney General.
Market sentiment for Binance’s token, BNB, remained neutral following these events. Some investors noted ongoing optimism and support from the Trump administration.
For further reading on market movements and updates in cryptocurrency, see this report on how Bitcoin and Ethereum prices responded to the latest inflation data: Gold-boost-2024-10-17″>Bitcoin, Ethereum Climb Ahead Of Inflation Data: Fundstrat’s Tom Lee Sees BTC Surging Toward $2M On Gold Boost.
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